By, (Mr): Phung Xuan Minh, [Chairman of the Board of Directors of PT Group & Saigon Ratings].
Bonds – the mainstay of medium and long-term capital for the economy.
With the global economy in 2026 continuing to be impacted by geopolitical conflicts, inflation, capital costs, and global trade volatility, the need for long-term capital market development in Vietnam has become more urgent than ever. According to the IMF, global growth in 2026 is projected at 3.1%, while inflation may rise again before cooling down in 2027; major risks stem from Middle Eastern conflicts, rising commodity prices, and tighter financial conditions.
In Vietnam, according to statistics from Saigon Ratings, the economy in the first quarter of 2026 maintained a positive foundation with GDP increasing by 7.83% year-on-year, while the average CPI increased by 3.51%. This indicates significant growth potential, but the pressures of capital costs and inflation cannot be ignored. In this context, “unlocking bond capital” is not only a financial solution but also a condition for shifting the growth model from dependence on bank credit to a more balanced, transparent, and sustainable capital structure.
Unlocking the Capital Flow of Corporate Bonds
The Vietnamese corporate bond market experienced significant volatility after 2022, but signs of recovery are becoming increasingly clear from 2025 to early 2026. According to Saigon Ratings, the total value of corporate bond issuances in 2025 is projected to reach VND 644.3 trillion, a 35.5% increase year-on-year; outstanding corporate bond debt is expected to reach approximately VND 1,413 trillion, equivalent to 11.4% of GDP, still significantly lower than the peak of 18.3% of GDP in 2020-2021 and the government’s target of 20%.
This indicates significant room for growth. However, the market entering 2026 will no longer be a game of purely economies of scale. The data also shows that while the market recovered in the first quarter of 2026, this recovery is not yet sustainable; the pressure of maturities in the remaining quarters of the year remains significant, especially in the real estate sector; rising capital costs and liquidity risks remain factors that need close monitoring.
The core issue of corporate bonds today is trust. Trust cannot be built solely on high interest rates, collateral, or the issuer’s commitments, but must be built on three foundations: information transparency, credit quality, and investor protection mechanisms. In 2026, Saigon Ratings assesses that market access will be strongly differentiated based on credit quality; businesses with high leverage, weak cash flow, or limited transparency will find it more difficult to raise capital.
Therefore, to facilitate the flow of corporate bond capital, credit ratings should become a central tool in market governance. Credit ratings help investors identify risks, help businesses determine reasonable capital costs, and help regulatory agencies supervise the market according to objective standards. For issuers, bonds should not only be a short-term “debt refinancing” tool, but must be linked to cash flow plans, capital structure, leverage ratios, collateral, capital utilization commitments, and actual debt repayment capacity.
From a policy perspective, it is necessary to promote public issuance, standardize prospectuses, increase the role of bondholder representatives, control the use of capital after issuance, and develop a transparent secondary market. When corporate bonds are priced based on credit risk rather than credit relationship, the market can become a sustainable medium- and long-term capital channel for the business sector.
Unlocking the flow of capital for Transportation Infrastructure Bonds
Transportation infrastructure is the “lifeblood” of the economy. A synchronized system of expressways, seaports, airports, railways, logistics, and urban transportation will reduce transportation costs, expand regional development space, increase business competitiveness, and boost FDI flows. Data shows that Vietnam aims to develop a synchronized, modern, and smart transportation infrastructure in the 2026-2030 period, including the goal of reaching 5,000 km of expressways by 2030, accelerating high-speed rail, the Long Thanh Expressway, gateway seaports, and a smart transportation system.
The demand for infrastructure capital is enormous and far exceeds the capacity of the state budget or traditional bank credit. Reuters reports that Vietnam aims to raise $5.5 billion in foreign loans in 2026 to boost large-scale infrastructure projects; previously, Vietnam had already launched 234 infrastructure projects worth approximately 3,400 trillion VND, of which only 18% came from state capital, with the remainder expected to come from the private sector and other sources.
This is the area where infrastructure bonds can thrive. Unlike conventional corporate bonds, infrastructure bonds need to be designed based on project cash flows: toll revenue, operating contracts, infrastructure lease rights, feasible financial support from the State, partial guarantees, or risk-sharing mechanisms in PPP models. When a project has a clear cash flow, a stable legal framework, and an independent credit rating, infrastructure bonds can attract long-term investors such as insurance companies, pension funds, infrastructure investment funds, development banks, and international financial institutions.
The biggest challenge for infrastructure bonds is not just issuing them, but ensuring they have sufficient credit quality. For BOT, PPP, or railway projects, investors need clear information on projected traffic volume, fee adjustment mechanisms, land acquisition risks, construction costs, payback periods, and risk-sharing responsibilities between the government, investors, and lenders. If these factors lack transparency, infrastructure bonds will be priced at high risk, increasing capital costs and reducing the project’s attractiveness.
Therefore, Vietnam needs to quickly establish a separate legal framework for infrastructure bonds, including standards for eligible projects, a mechanism for escrow accounts, a debt repayment reserve fund, mandatory credit ratings for large projects, and a conditional credit guarantee mechanism. Then, transportation infrastructure bonds will become a bridge between the nation’s enormous capital needs and long-term funding sources seeking stable investment assets.
Unlocking the Flow of Green Bond Capital
If infrastructure bonds are a tool for driving physical growth, then green bonds are a tool for channeling capital into sustainable growth. Globally, the sustainable debt market continues to grow strongly. The Climate Bonds Initiative reports that by the end of 2025, the total value of sustainable, compliant debt issuances will reach $6.8 trillion; green bonds alone will reach $653.5 billion in 2025, the second-highest issuance volume in history.
In Vietnam, there is still significant potential for green bonds. ADB’s Asian Bonds Online notes that by the end of 2025, the size of Vietnam’s outstanding sustainable bonds will be approximately US$1.1 billion, representing only 0.15% of the emerging East Asian sustainable bond market; this market currently consists mainly of green and sustainable bonds issued by the private sector.
Meanwhile, Vietnam’s financial needs for green transformation are enormous, encompassing renewable energy, transmission infrastructure, green transportation, water treatment, circular economy, and climate change adaptation. In March 2026, JICA and the Vietnamese Ministry of Finance launched a new generation ODA program for green transformation worth 50 billion yen, equivalent to approximately 8,350 billion VND or 320 million USD, to support green growth and climate adaptation. This loan is expected to be disbursed quickly and is linked to green transformation policies, demonstrating Vietnam’s growing importance as a destination for international climate capital.
However, to facilitate the flow of green bonds, Vietnam needs to address its biggest risk: the lack of unified green standards and the risk of “green monetization.” The data also highlights the need for a clear legal framework for green criteria, regulations on green bond credit rating, mechanisms for monitoring capital utilization, and measures to prevent green monetization.
A bond is only truly “green” when the capital is used for a project with a clear environmental impact, is independently assessed, has regular reports on capital utilization, and its emission reduction or climate adaptation effectiveness can be measured. Therefore, in addition to traditional credit ratings, the market needs to develop further ESG assessments, green bond framework validation, environmental impact reporting, and post-issuance audits.
Proposals and solutions to unlock bond issuance funds.
Unlocking bond financing is a strategic task for Vietnam to reduce its dependence on bank credit, expand medium- and long-term capital channels, and enhance national competitiveness. For corporate bonds, the focus is on transparency, credit rating, information disclosure, and investor protection. For transportation infrastructure bonds, the focus is on project standardization, PPP risk sharing, ensuring cash flow, and developing long-term investors. For green bonds, the focus is on green criteria, monitoring capital utilization, ESG assessment, and preventing green cleaning.
For sustainable market development, a comprehensive set of solutions is needed: perfecting the legal framework for private and public bond issuances; expanding independent credit rating requirements; developing bond funds, pension funds, insurance funds, and institutional investors; establishing a benchmark yield curve; forming a credit guarantee or partial guarantee mechanism for strategic infrastructure projects; promoting mixed financing between public capital, private capital, ODA, and international development institutions; and simultaneously digitizing issuance, transaction, and debt repayment data.
In the period 2026–2030, if Vietnam can unlock three capital flows: corporate bonds, transportation infrastructure bonds, and green bonds, the capital market will not only be a place to mobilize money, but also become a “system for allocating confidence” in the economy. When confidence is measured by credit ratings, information transparency, and efficient use of capital, bonds will become key to promoting rapid, sustainable growth and elevating the nation’s economic standing.
Saigon Ratings [12-May-2026]
