(Mr. Phung Xuan Minh, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Phat Thinh Group & Saigon Ratings).
As we have presented in the previous sections, in the first eight months of 2026, the Vietnamese economy has built many positive foundations thanks to the positive improvements in industrial production, import and export, investment, consumption, and FDI inflows. However, in the last four months of 2026, the growth outlook needs to be fully assessed within a broader context, considering that domestic drivers remain present, but uncertainties in the global economy such as rising energy prices, inflation, international trade, and financial conditions may continue to impact the Vietnamese economy.
Overall, international organizations continue to assess Vietnam as one of the fastest-growing economies in the region, but there are significant differences in expected growth rates. This suggests that Vietnam’s economic outlook in the remaining months of 2026 and throughout 2027 will increasingly depend on its ability to transform current drivers into resources that promote higher-quality, more efficient, and sustainable growth; while simultaneously ensuring macroeconomic stability, coupled with accelerating comprehensive reforms in economic institutions, administrative procedures, and the business environment.
Vietnam’s economic outlook is positive, but the external environment is uncertain and difficult to predict.
One of the most important factors influencing Vietnam’s economic outlook in the short and long term is the complex and unpredictable developments in geopolitical competition, trade barriers, and military conflict hotspots around the world today.
The World Bank notes that Vietnam is one of the countries with a relatively high degree of trade openness. Therefore, it is considerably sensitive to adverse fluctuations in the global business environment, such as: declining global consumer demand, increased trade protectionism, disruptions in global supply chains, and rising raw material and fuel prices; especially new US tariff policies, which have the potential to spread relatively quickly and have significant impacts on the Vietnamese economy.
International organizations continue to positively assess Vietnam’s growth prospects for 2026 and 2027.
International organizations have recently issued forecasts for Vietnam’s economic growth prospects in the remaining months of 2026 and 2027 that show quite different outcomes, reflecting differing assumptions about the international environment and the strength of domestic growth drivers.
According to the World Bank (WB), Vietnam’s GDP is projected to grow by 6.8% in 2026, following an 8% increase in 2025, before recovering to around 7.1% in 2027. The World Bank notes that exports and investment will continue to support Vietnam’s economic growth, but emphasizes the need to improve productivity, increase linkages between the FDI sector and domestic businesses, and maintain the reform process.
Meanwhile, the Asian Development Bank (ADB) offered a more positive assessment. In its July 2026 Asian Development Outlook report, the ADB maintained its forecast for Vietnam’s GDP growth at 7.2% for the whole of 2026 and 7.0% for 2027, the highest among developing Southeast Asian economies. According to the ADB, relatively stable manufacturing, exports, investment, and domestic demand continue to support Vietnam’s short- and medium-term prospects.
Public investment could become a key driver in the last four months of 2026.
Saigon Ratings believes that public investment continues to be one of the key areas to support Vietnam’s economic growth in the remaining months of 2026. The relatively large amount of capital that needs to be disbursed could have a direct positive impact on the construction, materials, transportation, and many related service sectors.
More importantly, the effectiveness of public investment lies not only in its direct contribution to aggregate demand. Transportation, logistics, energy, and urban infrastructure projects, if implemented on schedule and efficiently, can contribute to reducing transportation costs, increasing connectivity between economic regions, and creating a leading effect on private sector investment. Therefore, the potential for economic growth from public investment in the remaining months of 2026 depends simultaneously on the progress and quality of disbursement of investment funds for projects, rather than solely on the scale of public investment capital injected into the economy.
Exports, FDI, and consumption continue to provide the foundation for economic growth.
Exports are expected to continue to be a key driver of economic growth, especially as the manufacturing sector maintains relatively high growth rates. However, Vietnam’s export prospects will depend heavily on demand in traditional key international markets such as the United States, China, the EU, and major markets in other regions, as well as changes in international trade policies.
FDI also has the potential to continue supporting production capacity. However, in the 2026–2027 period, the requirements for investment attraction policies need to shift more strongly from scale to quality of capital flows, prioritizing the attraction of high-tech projects, semiconductors, AI, data centers, supporting industries, and research and development (R&D) activities.
Institutional reforms offer room for growth while putting less pressure on macroeconomic stability.
Besides fiscal and monetary policies, another important area of focus is economic institutional reform. This can be considered a particularly significant source of growth, as reducing administrative procedures, shortening project implementation times, improving policy consistency, and lowering compliance costs can contribute to increased investment efficiency without necessarily creating additional inflationary pressure or increasing credit.
Several international organizations assess that the current economic reform program of the Vietnamese government is on the right track, but the key challenge lies in the ability to translate economic reforms into tangible results to ensure the stability of development resources and the progress of implementation in line with expectations. This is especially important for 2027, when the ability to sustain high economic growth will increasingly depend on labor productivity and the efficient allocation of resources, rather than simply focusing on expanding investment scale.
Forecast of Vietnam’s economic growth scenarios in 2026
Based on the economic growth achievements in the first eight months of 2026 and the forecasts of Vietnam’s economic growth prospects for the whole year 2026 released by international organizations in recent months, Saigon Ratings presents some assessments and forecasts with three growth scenarios for Vietnam in 2026, as follows:
Scenario 1– Vietnam’s economic growth remains cautious, given that the global economy continues to weaken more than expected, US tariff policies are unfavorable, energy prices remain high, exports have slowed significantly, and public investment disbursement has not met expectations. In this scenario, Vietnam’s economic growth in 2026 could approach or exceed the current forecast range of international organizations (8.5% – 9%).
The second scenarioassumes continued growth in Vietnam’s manufacturing, business, and export activities, sustained positive FDI, accelerated public investment, and stable domestic demand. This scenario projects Vietnam’s economic growth to range from 9.0% to 10%, higher than current forecasts from international organizations.
The third scenario– a positive outlook, ranging from 10% to 11%, could emerge if public investment accelerates significantly, exports maintain high growth, consumption continues to improve, and external shocks are significantly reduced. However, higher economic growth rates need to be accompanied by effective control of inflation, exchange rates, and credit quality to limit the formation of new economic imbalances.
Saigon Ratings. [Sep/05/2026]
