According to World Bank data, between 2019 and 2023, the Vietnamese economy mobilized an average of approximately US$53.5 billion annually through the banking system, while the stock market contributed only about US$2.9 billion. This difference demonstrates the overwhelming role of the banking channel in mobilizing capital for the Vietnamese economy during this period.
With data updated to 2025, the World Bank’s May 2026 Vietnam Economic Update report notes that the credit-to-GDP ratio will increase from 131% in 2023 to 136% in 2024 and 145% in 2025; credit growth in 2025 is projected at 19%. Although the stock and bond markets have improved, the World Bank assesses that the depth of Vietnam’s capital market still has many limitations. Therefore, the need to develop medium and long-term capital sources outside the banking channel is increasingly urgent, aiming to diversify financing channels and allocate risk more rationally. However, it is necessary to clearly distinguish between the amount of capital mobilized during the period and the size of outstanding loans; the above indicators do not directly determine the proportion of medium and long-term financing from each capital channel in the market.
According to data from the State Bank of Vietnam, outstanding credit to the economy is projected to increase from approximately VND 8.20 million billion at the end of 2019 to over VND 18.58 million billion at the end of 2025, equivalent to a size of about 2.27 times. In 2025 alone, credit is expected to increase by 19.01% compared to the end of 2024; based on the published size and growth rate, outstanding credit will increase by approximately VND 2.97 million billion. The State Bank of Vietnam acknowledges that the pressure to supply capital to the banking system remains significant in the context of an unbalanced financial market. This necessitates the simultaneous development of the credit, stock, and bond markets; coupled with expanding medium and long-term financing sources outside the banking channel, thereby diversifying mobilization channels and allocating resources more effectively. However, it is necessary to distinguish between outstanding credit at a given point in time and the amount of capital mobilized during a given period. The above figures do not directly measure the proportion of medium and long-term capital supply from each capital channel.
To ensure a safe transition, it is necessary to simultaneously develop the quality of the issuing organization and the capacity of investors. Businesses must have financial transparency and feasible plans for capital utilization and debt repayment cash flow. Projects with significant uncertainties should prioritize strengthening equity capital before increasing debt. The financing roadmap can be linked to the lifecycle of investment projects: banks participate in the initial phase within risk limits; when cash flow stabilizes, businesses raise capital through bonds or equity. Businesses should not abruptly restrict credit financing when alternative financing sources are not readily available.
Regarding credit limit management policies, quantitative limits can restrict the growth of banks with sufficient lending capacity, while also failing to fully reflect the quality of each loan. The shift should be based on the financial health and risk management capabilities of each specific bank. However, it is crucial to clearly distinguish that the Basel III framework measures information reflecting bank safety, not a monetary tool that directly replaces the implementation of a bank’s annual credit limit policy.
Therefore, regulatory authorities need to finalize data, classify debts, and monitor them first; consider conversion with banks that meet capital, liquidity, and governance standards; and then expand based on the evaluation results. Simultaneously, the role of interest rates, open market operations, and other macroeconomic safety tools needs to be strengthened. Reducing administrative intervention does not mean loosening credit discipline in the market in general and in individual businesses in particular.
Regarding the risk of stifling private sector investment, one should not only look at the total issuance of government bonds. Competition for capital may increase if various channels depend on a group of businesses with limited resources. Conversely, efficient public investment can create opportunities for private sector investment. Policies need to effectively coordinate the schedule for fundraising, fund management, and disbursement; and closely monitor the issuance of bonds within the fundraising period by issuers in the bond market.
To improve the cost of bond capital, macroeconomic policies should prioritize stabilizing inflation expectations and developing benchmark yields. Businesses need to focus more on implementing risk management policies in their operations, such as cash flow management; controlling financial leverage; allocating schedules to fulfill maturing debt obligations fully and on time; and regularly disclosing information. Assessing the cost of capital should also include bond issuance fees and binding terms, rather than simply comparing market interest rates. The goal is not to implement uniformly low interest rates, but rather to achieve a cost of capital that accurately reflects the actual risk.
Rebuilding and deepening the bond market.
According to statistics from Saigon Ratings, as of August 2026, new corporate bond issuances reached approximately VND 35 trillion, with banks accounting for 82% of the total bonds issued in the first eight months of 2026. This bond issuance structure reflects the fact that the scale of issuance should not be equated with the needs and access to capital of the business system; at the same time, this should not be interpreted as implying that the proportion of banks issuing bonds corresponds to the proportion of banks holding bonds.
From a credit rating perspective, the overarching bottleneck in the financial market should be seen as “verifiable trust.” Legal compliance, investor sentiment, and the quality of intermediaries need to be addressed more comprehensively. Priorities include transparency of debt obligations, monitoring of capital utilization, and enforcement of bondholder rights in the market. Restructuring the financial market must be accompanied by cash flow plans, accountability, and informed choice for investors. Simultaneously, the responsibilities of auditors, issuance advisors, bondholder representatives, and asset management entities must be clarified.
Credit ratings need to become a regular part of the information system. According to data from the draft report of the Ministry of Finance, cited by the Economic and Financial Magazine, in 2025, the value of bonds issued using rating services will only reach approximately VND 10,200 billion. Although 3.1 times higher than in 2024, this only accounts for about 1.6% of the total value of bonds issued in the market. This shows that credit rating activities have not yet become a “business culture” in the Vietnamese market and that information asymmetry in the bond market remains quite high compared to many developed market economies in Southeast Asia.
The scope of mandatory credit ratings should be designed to meet the needs of investor protection, the size and complexity of debt instruments, and to apply legal exceptions appropriately. Emphasis should be placed on the independence, conflict of interest control, and post-issuance oversight of all bond issuers in the market; and credit rating should not be considered a guarantee of payment or an automatic interest rate reduction.
International institutional capital has already been present through specific transactions. In June 2024, IFC announced investments of $25 million in blue bonds and $50 million in green bonds of SeABank. However, one transaction does not represent the overall market trend of foreign capital in 2026. To attract sustainable international capital flows, Vietnam needs to focus more on standardizing information, protecting creditor rights, and improving its ability to hedge against market exchange rate risks.
Domestically, the focus should be on developing accumulation through insurance companies, supplemental pension funds, and investment funds. For insurance, the portfolio must align with payout obligations and concentration limits. For pension funds, long-term accumulation, premium transparency, and beneficiary protection should be encouraged. For investment funds, the repurchase mechanism for fund certificates must be compatible with asset liquidity, avoiding the use of short-term commitments to finance long-term portfolios that are difficult to sell.
Ultimately, the measure of market success is not just the volume of bonds issued, but the ability to deliver capital to the right businesses, at the right maturity, and with identified risks. Information transparency, independent ratings, and a long-term investor base need to be developed together so that “trust” becomes the true foundation of the bond market in particular and the Vietnamese financial market in general.
Saigon Ratings. [17/Sep/2026]
Theo Diễn đàn Doanh Nghiệp. [18/09/2026]
Việt Nam dự kiến phát hành trái phiếu quốc tế – “Bước thử” cho kế hoạch lớn hơn?
Ấn phẩm in Diễn đàn Doanh nghiệp số 75 (18/09/2026)
Tái thiết và tạo lập chiều sâu cho thị trường trái phiếu
