Mr. Phung Xuan Minh–Chairman of the Board of Directors of Phat Thinh Group & Saigon Ratings.
In the first six months of 2026, the Vietnamese financial market operated against a backdrop of sustained high economic growth, but inflationary pressures and increasing capital demand continued. GDP growth was quite positive at approximately 8.18%, higher than the 7.63% growth of the same period in 2025; the average consumer price index increased by 4.38% and core inflation increased by 4.12%.
The national economic growth results in the first six months of 2026 have created a positive foundation for financial market activities; at the same time, it also highlights the urgent need to continue focusing on implementing more balanced policies between supporting economic growth, stabilizing market exchange rates, strictly controlling inflation, and ensuring financial safety for the entire banking system.
Part 1: Overview of the Vietnamese financial market in the first six months of 2026
1. The banking system continues to play a leading role in supplying capital.
According to data from the State Bank of Vietnam, as of June 29, 2026, the total outstanding credit of the entire system reached approximately VND 20.03 million billion, an increase of 7.73% compared to the end of 2025. In the first half of 2026, the banking system added approximately VND 1.4 million billion in capital to the economy. Credit flows continue to be prioritized for production and business activities; especially priority sectors of the economy such as small and medium-sized enterprises, agriculture, rural areas, and other important growth drivers.
The scale of credit continues to demonstrate the leading role of the banking system in supplying capital to the economy. However, the credit growth rate is currently higher than the deposit growth rate. According to statistics from Saigon Ratings, as of June 26, 2026, total credit increased by approximately 7.41%, while deposits by credit institutions only increased by more than 5.02% compared to the end of 2025. This gap puts pressure on the cost of capital, liquidity, and maturity balance, especially given that the demand for medium and long-term loans for infrastructure development, real estate, technology, and large-scale national projects is projected to continue increasing in the medium and long term.
Notably, the quality of bank assets remains a crucial issue requiring continued close monitoring. By the end of June 2026, the on-balance sheet non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of the entire banking system is projected to be around 3.31%, a decrease from 3.44% at the end of 2025. Excluding the five banks under special supervision, the NPL ratio would be only about 1.51%. Although the NPL ratio has decreased, the absolute amount of non-performing loans across the entire system continues to increase alongside credit expansion. This indicates significant differentiation in asset quality and debt resolution capacity among credit institutions.
Therefore, assessing the safety of the banking system should not be based solely on the published non-performing loan ratio, but should also consider data on non-performing loan balances, Group 2 loans, restructured loans, non-performing loan coverage ratios, provisioning costs, and the degree of credit concentration in potentially risky sectors across the entire banking system.
In the first six months of 2026, the State Bank of Vietnam will continue to maintain its policy interest rates; while simultaneously utilizing open market operations, foreign exchange swaps, and other regulatory tools to support market liquidity. Statistics from Saigon Ratings show that, as of June 30, 2026, the interbank exchange rate will be approximately VND 26,308/USD, an increase of only 0.07% compared to the end of 2025. This result reflects the flexible monetary policy management direction, coordinating exchange rate stability, inflation control, and effective economic growth support by the State Bank of Vietnam.
However, we believe that there is limited room for further interest rate reductions in the near future, given the relatively high average inflation rate, faster credit growth than deposit growth, and the continued expansion of the economy’s capital needs in the medium and long term. This will be a crucial challenge for the State Bank of Vietnam in its national monetary policy operations during the remaining months of 2026.
2. The stock market is expanding in size.
The Vietnamese stock market is expected to continue its expansion trend in the first half of 2026. As of June 30, 2026, the VN-Index reached 1,860.01 points, a 4.23% increase compared to the end of 2025. Market capitalization reached approximately VND 10,572.8 trillion, a 6% increase compared to the same period in 2025. The average trading value in the first six months of 2026 is expected to reach approximately VND 29,314.7 billion per session, equivalent to the average level of 2025.
Although the index and market capitalization increased, liquidity showed signs of slowing down towards the end of the second quarter. In June alone, the average trading value reached only about VND 19,982 billion per session, a decrease of 23.7% compared to the previous month. This development indicates that the increase in the index does not entirely equate to the even distribution of capital across the Vietnamese stock market. Therefore, the quality of growth needs further assessment through market breadth, trading structure, and the degree of concentration in large-cap stocks.
According to statistics from Saigon Ratings, by the end of June 2026, the Vietnamese stock market will have 725 listed stocks and fund certificates, along with 825 stocks registered for trading on UPCoM. The total value of listed and registered stocks will reach approximately VND 2,847 trillion. By the end of May 2026, the number of securities accounts will reach approximately 13.16 million, an increase of nearly 11% compared to the end of 2025.
Total capital raised through the stock market in the first six months of 2026, excluding privately issued corporate bonds, reached approximately VND 173,753 billion, a 45.8% increase compared to the same period last year. This result shows that the stock market is gradually enhancing its role in directly supplying capital to the economy, although the proportion of medium and long-term capital remains low compared to bank credit.
Regarding technological infrastructure, the KRX system officially went into operation on May 5, 2025. Therefore, the focus in 2026 will no longer be on preparing for system launch, but rather on effectively utilizing the new platform, improving data quality, increasing monitoring capacity, and gradually perfecting the settlement and clearing mechanism in accordance with international practices.
Another significant milestone is that on April 7, 2026, FTSE Russell confirmed the upgrade of the Vietnamese stock market from a frontier market to a secondary emerging market, effective from the opening session on September 21, 2026. This upgrade is expected to expand Vietnam’s access to international capital flows, but the actual scale of this capital will depend on several other important factors such as market liquidity, foreign ownership ratios, free float market capitalization, and the quality of information disclosure by each listed company.
3. The corporate bond market is recovering but is highly fragmented.
According to data from the Vietnam Bond Market Association (VBMA), the total value of corporate bonds issued in the first six months of 2026 reached approximately VND 212,748 billion. Of this, private placements accounted for VND 187,915 billion, representing 88.3% of the total issuance value, while public offerings accounted for VND 24,833 billion, representing 11.7% of the total issuance value. This indicates that private placements remain the dominant form of capital raising in the Vietnamese corporate bond market today.
The structure of corporate bond issuance continues to be highly concentrated in two main sectors: banking and real estate. Banking accounts for approximately 50% and real estate for about 40% of the value of private placements. This concentration reflects the need for additional Tier 2 capital, extending the maturity of funding sources for banks, as well as the need for refinancing and investment in project development by real estate companies in recent times.
According to SaigonRatings’ Q2/2026 Market Report, the total outstanding corporate bond debt reached approximately VND 1,478 trillion, equivalent to about 10.9% of the most recent nominal GDP. This scale shows that the corporate bond market has become an important part of Vietnam’s financial system, but it is still much smaller than outstanding bank credit.
The cost of raising capital continues to differentiate according to credit quality. In the second quarter of 2026, the average coupon rate for bank bonds was approximately 8.5% per annum, while that for real estate bonds was around 11.5% per annum. This interest rate level reflects the higher risk compensation requirements of investors for businesses with weak cash flow, high financial leverage, or heavy reliance on refinancing.
4. The overall picture of the Vietnamese financial market today
Overall, the Vietnamese financial market continued to expand in size during the first six months of 2026, but the quality of growth was uneven. The banking system remains the primary channel for capital flow in the economy, but is facing pressure regarding capital balance and asset quality. The stock market has made significant progress in terms of size, infrastructure, and upgrades, but the diffusion of capital flows needs further strengthening.
Meanwhile, the corporate bond market continues its recovery trend and is gradually developing steadily in a selective manner, with increasingly clear differentiation based on the credit quality of issuers. Cash flow generation capacity, debt repayment ability, transparency, and governance quality will be decisive factors in determining businesses’ access to capital, and will form the basis for assessing the development prospects of Vietnam’s financial market in the last six months of 2026.
