Mr. Phung Xuan Minh–Chairman of the Board of Directors of Phat Thinh Group & Saigon Ratings.
As we enter the final months of 2026, the operational requirements of Vietnam’s financial market will be to simultaneously meet the enormous capital needs for economic growth and ensure macroeconomic stability.
The government has projected a growth rate of approximately 11.7% in the last six months of the year, aiming for a full-year GDP target of 10% or higher. However, reality shows that the average CPI for the first seven months of 2026 increased by approximately 4.39%, and core inflation increased by approximately 4.19%, indicating that the room for further monetary policy easing is no longer very wide. Capital flows may continue to expand, but will be allocated more cautiously based on credit quality, cash flow generation capacity, and the level of transparency of each business entity operating in the market.
1. Credit market: Growth must go hand in hand with risk control.
The biggest challenge for the credit market at the end of 2026 is balancing growth rate and asset quality. By July 29, 2026, outstanding credit in the entire banking system had exceeded VND 20.15 trillion, an increase of 8.38% compared to the end of 2025. During the remaining months of 2026, the pressure to supply capital for production, business activities, and growth drivers will remain high. If the policy of excessively rapid credit growth in a short period continues, the banking system may face greater pressure on liquidity, funding costs, and risk control capacity.
Another challenge is the disparity between the maturities of deposits and loans across the entire banking system. The demand for medium and long-term capital to finance infrastructure development, technology, real estate, and key national projects is growing, while a significant portion of banks’ deposits remains short-term. Expanding credit to projects with long payback periods could increase liquidity risk and interest rate repricing risk.
Therefore, credit quality also needs to be closely monitored and supervised in the remaining months of 2026 and throughout 2027. Many businesses in the market are still under immense pressure regarding production input costs, consumer markets, and the responsibility to fulfill their maturing debt obligations. Consequently, loan growth across the entire banking system must be accompanied by control over non-performing loans (NPLs), restructured loans, provisioning levels, bad debt coverage ratios, and the concentration of credit on customers with high financial leverage.
In terms of outlook, bank credit is projected to continue increasing in the final months of 2026, thanks to the proactive and flexible management direction of the State Bank of Vietnam. Capital flows are expected to continue to be prioritized for production, business, exports, high-tech industries, small and medium-sized enterprises, investment in essential infrastructure development, and social housing development.
However, credit growth will be more selective. Banks with strong capital bases, stable liquidity, high provisioning ratios, and effective appraisal capabilities will have a significant competitive advantage. Lending interest rates may continue to be supported in some priority sectors, but a substantial reduction across the board is unlikely due to inflationary pressures, exchange rate fluctuations, and capital costs. This assessment aligns with the State Bank of Vietnam’s short- and medium-term policy direction of stabilizing market liquidity, focusing on inflation control, and closely coordinating monetary and fiscal policies.
2. Stock market: Opportunities for upgrade come with differentiation.
For the stock market, the biggest challenge is balancing upgrade expectations, stock valuations, and the quality of earnings growth for companies in the industry. Once positive expectations have been partially reflected in prices, the stock market can become highly volatile in response to information on interest rates, exchange rates, earnings results, foreign capital flows, and the global economic outlook.
Stock market risks can also increase if cash flow and margin debt are excessively concentrated in certain groups of stocks. Therefore, the performance of the overall stock market index alone is not enough to fully reflect the market’s quality. Investors need to pay more attention to the breadth of price increases, actual liquidity, earnings quality, and cash flow generation capacity of listed companies.
The quality of information disclosure and corporate governance continues to be a crucial requirement for the stock market in the medium and long term. International institutional investors are not only interested in market capitalization but also assess liquidity, foreign ownership ratio, degree of freedom of transfer, data quality, and market accessibility. Companies operating on the stock market that are slow to disclose information, have complex related-party transactions, or have low profit quality will find it difficult to fully benefit from the stock market upgrade process in the future.
The most significant development in the final months of 2026 is FTSE Russell’s confirmation of Vietnam’s upgrade from a frontier market to a secondary emerging market, effective from the opening session on September 21, 2026. This is a crucial step for the status of Vietnam’s capital market, potentially attracting more international institutional investors and accelerating the standardization of trading infrastructure.
However, upgrading the stock market does not mean that international capital flows will be disbursed immediately or that all stocks will benefit. The ability to attract capital flows in the market actually depends on the selection criteria of each index, liquidity, remaining foreign ownership ratio, free float market capitalization, and the quality of governance of each listed company.
In a positive scenario, economic growth, public investment disbursement, corporate business results, and an upgrade in market status will support the Vietnamese stock market in continuing its role as a medium- and long-term capital mobilization channel. However, market developments at the end of 2026 may see significant divergence. Stocks of companies with healthy balance sheets, strong cash flow, transparent governance, and sustainable profit prospects will be preferred over those whose growth relies primarily on financial leverage.
3. Corporate bond market: Selective recovery
The corporate bond market in the final months of 2026 will continue to face three main challenges: maturity pressure, refinancing costs, and high concentration levels. Market data updated by Saigon Ratings as of August 1, 2026, shows that the total value of outstanding bonds reached approximately VND 1,487 trillion, equivalent to 10.9% of the most recent nominal GDP; simultaneously, the value of bonds maturing in the final months of 2026 and the first six months of 2027 is estimated at around VND 242 trillion.
In July 2026 alone, the value of new issuances reached approximately VND 26 trillion, a decrease of 80% compared to the previous month. Banks accounted for 79% and real estate accounted for 11% of the total issuance value. This structure shows that market access remains mainly concentrated in the banking sector and a few large-scale real estate companies with sound financial records, land resources, and strong brand reputation.
At the same time, the cost of raising capital in the bond market will continue to differentiate according to credit quality in the coming period. The average coupon rate for bank bonds in July was approximately 8.7% per year, while that for real estate bonds was around 12.5% per year. Businesses with weak cash flow, high leverage, or heavy reliance on new issuances will have to pay a higher risk premium.
Saigon Ratings recorded an annual default rate of approximately 0.29%. However, this indicator is calculated using Saigon Ratings’ own methodology and does not mean that refinancing risk has been eliminated. The actual pressure depends on the debt maturity schedule, cash flow, operating cash flow, ability to sell assets, and access to alternative financing sources for each company in the market.
The market outlook remains positive thanks to strong demand for medium and long-term capital, coupled with an increasingly完善 and transparent legal framework. Government Decree No. 200/2026/ND-CP stipulates that businesses issuing bonds must adhere to the principle of self-borrowing, self-repayment, and self-responsibility; they must use the capital for its intended purpose, separately monitor the mobilized capital, and make full and timely payments of principal and interest on the bonds.
In the final months of 2026, bond issuance activity in the market is projected to continue its selective recovery. The banking system is likely to continue playing a leading role in supplementing Tier 2 capital and extending the maturity of funding sources. Real estate companies with clear project investment legal status, strong sales cash flow, and transparent collateral assets will still be able to access bond investors and diversify their capital raising in the market.
Conversely, businesses with high financial leverage, weak cash flow, or a history of defaulting payments will face higher funding costs and stricter issuance conditions. Bondholders in the market are increasingly focusing on information regarding the issuer’s and bond’s credit rating, debt repayment sources, collateral, bondholder protection clauses, and the businesses’ cash flow control mechanisms.
Overall, the outlook for Vietnam’s financial market at the end of 2026 remains positive but shows clear differentiation. The focus for the coming period will not only be on increasing credit volume, market capitalization, or bond issuance value, but also on improving capital quality, enhancing information transparency, and ensuring the ability of issuers to fulfill their financial obligations fully and on time.
This will be the foundation for determining the sustainability of the financial system, while enhancing the ability to mobilize medium and long-term resources for Vietnam’s economic development in the period 2026-2030 and the national development vision to 2045, in the era of national progress.
Saigon Ratings. [August 22, 2026]
