(Mr. Phung Xuan Minh, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Phat Thinh Group & Saigon Ratings).
After eight months of 2026 marked by many positive results, the Vietnamese economy enters the final phase of the year with increasingly demanding requirements for balancing growth promotion with macroeconomic stability. According to the Government’s assessment at its regular meeting in August 2026, the macroeconomic situation generally remains stable, and major balances are ensured. However, the remaining four months require accelerated efforts to ensure the achievement of the socio-economic development goals for 2026 set by the National Assembly.
1. Uncertainty in the international economy and politics continues to be a major risk.
Vietnam is a highly open economy deeply involved in global production and trade chains. Therefore, fluctuations in the global economy have the potential to relatively quickly transmit signals to domestic production, exports, investment, and financial markets.
In the last four months of the year, changes in trade policies in major economies, increasing protectionist trends, geopolitical conflicts, fluctuations in energy and commodity prices, and adjustments in global supply chains continue to be factors to monitor. In particular, with the United States remaining Vietnam’s largest export market, changes in tariffs, rules of origin, or trade standards could directly impact export businesses.
2. The pressure to maintain high growth rates is increasing.
The second challenge lies within the growth requirement itself. The positive results of the first eight months of the year create a favorable foundation, but at the same time increase the demands on the growth rate in the remaining months to achieve the full-year target.
This is not simply a matter of increasing GDP growth. If growth relies too heavily on credit expansion, increased investment, or short-term stimulus measures, imbalances may emerge in subsequent periods. Therefore, the more important issue isthe quality of growth, especially productivity, capital efficiency, the health of the business sector, and the ability to generate long-term growth drivers.
3. Controlling inflation becomes more difficult when the economy accelerates.
One of the notable challenges is price pressure. As analyzed in Part I, the average CPI for the first eight months of 2026 increased by 4.45% and core inflation increased by 4.24%. The relatively narrow gap between the two indicators suggests that price pressure needs to be continuously monitored in the remaining months of the year.
Inflation risks can come from multiple sources: energy prices and imported raw materials, exchange rates, year-end consumer demand, public investment, and credit growth. If these factors all increase simultaneously, maintaining interest rates to support production and business while controlling inflation and stabilizing the exchange rate will become a more complex management challenge.
4. Imports and exports have increased significantly, but the quality of the trade balance needs to be monitored.
Total import and export turnover in the first eight months increased sharply, but imports grew faster than exports, and the trade balance shifted to a trade deficit. A significant portion of imports consisted of production materials, reflecting the growing demand for inputs in expanding production activities. Therefore, a trade deficit in this case is not necessarily entirely a negative sign.
However, if the gap between import and export growth rates continues to widen, the trade balance could put further pressure on the balance of payments and the foreign exchange market. At the same time, the large proportion of processed industrial goods in exports also indicates that Vietnam remains significantly influenced by external demand and the activities of the FDI sector.
5. Competition to attract FDI shifts from scale to quality.
Foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows will continue to be a bright spot in 2026, but international competition to attract high-tech projects is increasing. Advantages in labor costs and geographical location will struggle to create sustainable differentiation without accompanying quality infrastructure, a stable workforce, reliable energy, supporting industries, and a transparent legal environment.
Therefore, the FDI problem in the coming period needs to gradually shift from“how much capital to attract” to “what type of capital to attract and how much value to create for the economy”. Semiconductor, AI, digital technology, R&D, and high-tech manufacturing projects can bring greater value, but at the same time place higher demands on human resources and the domestic business ecosystem.
6. Public investment still has significant room for growth, but the pressure to disburse funds is concentrated towards the end of the year.
Public investment continues to be expected to be a key driver of growth. However, the fact that a large amount of capital still needs to be disbursed in the last four months of the year creates significant pressure on the schedule.
If disbursement is slow, the ripple effect on construction, materials, transportation, and private investment will be lower than expected. Conversely, if too much focus is placed on the speed of disbursement without ensuring the quality and efficiency of investment and controlling costs, risks to the efficient use of capital may arise.
Therefore, the core issue is not just aboutrapid disbursement, but also about ensuring thatthe projects are implemented correctly, on schedule, and with economic and social effectiveness.
7. Financial markets face the need to balance capital supply and risk control.
For the financial market, the need to support credit growth must go hand in hand with controlling the asset quality of the banking system. As the economy’s capital needs increase, directing credit towards production and business activities and other genuine growth drivers becomes particularly important.
The stock and corporate bond markets also need to continue playing their role as channels for medium and long-term capital mobilization, thereby reducing the economy’s dependence on bank credit. However, requirements for information transparency, the quality of issuing companies, debt repayment capacity, and investor confidence remain crucial factors for the sustainable development of the capital market.
8. Institutional reform and improving the business environment are long-term challenges.
Ultimately, one of the key factors determining the quality of growth lies not in a single economic indicator but inthe effectiveness of institutions and the business environment. The framework also identifies this as a separate set of challenges that need to be assessed.
Continuing to simplify procedures, reduce compliance costs, ensure consistency in policy implementation, and remove bottlenecks to investment can create greater growth potential without necessarily relying on credit expansion or fiscal stimulus.
Overall,the last four months of 2026 will be a test of Vietnam’s ability to maintain the quality of its economic growth. The biggest challenge is not a lack of growth drivers, but rather the ability to coordinate these drivers within the available policy space, while simultaneously meeting multiple objectives: promoting growth, controlling inflation, stabilizing monetary and financial conditions, improving investment efficiency, and strengthening the competitiveness of the economy. If these balances are maintained, the challenges of the end of 2026 could also become the basis for Vietnam to enter 2027 with a more sustainable growth foundation.
