(Mr. Phung Xuan Minh, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Phat Thinh Group & Saigon Ratings).
Vietnam’s economy continued its positive growth momentum in the first eight months of 2026, with solid foundations built upon the simultaneous recovery of key economic sectors such as industrial production, trade, consumption, investment, and tourism services. Notably, this growth was driven not only by the expansion of the economy’s scale but also by strong support from production and business activities, attracting foreign investment, and the increasingly prominent competitive position of the Vietnamese economy within the global supply chain.
The national economic growth results in the first eight months of 2026 have created a positive foundation for financial market activities; at the same time, it also highlights the urgent need to continue focusing on implementing more balanced policies between supporting economic growth, stabilizing market exchange rates, tightly controlling inflation, and ensuring financial safety for the entire banking system. In the first eight months of 2026, the Vietnamese financial market operated in a context where the economy maintained a high growth rate, but inflationary pressures and capital demand continued to increase.
According to data from the State Bank of Vietnam, as of June 29, 2026, the total outstanding credit of the entire Vietnamese banking system reached approximately VND 20.03 million billion, an increase of 7.73% compared to the same period in 2025. In the first six months of 2026, the banking system injected approximately VND 1.4 million billion in capital into the economy. Credit flows continue to be prioritized for financing production and business activities; especially priority sectors of the economy such as small and medium-sized enterprises, agriculture, rural areas, and other key growth drivers.
The continued increase in credit volume demonstrates the leading role of the banking system in supplying capital to the economy. However, the credit growth rate is currently higher than the deposit growth rate. According to statistics from Saigon Ratings, as of June 26, 2026, total credit increased by approximately 7.41%, while deposits by credit institutions only increased by more than 5.02% compared to the end of 2025. This gap puts pressure on the cost of capital, liquidity, and maturity balance, especially given that the demand for medium and long-term loans for infrastructure development, real estate, technology, and large-scale national projects is projected to continue increasing in the medium and long term.
Notably, the quality of bank assets remains a crucial issue requiring continued close monitoring. By the end of June 2026, the on-balance sheet non-performing loan (NPL) ratio of the entire banking system is projected to be around 3.31%, a decrease from 3.44% at the end of 2025. If the five banks under special supervision are excluded, the NPL ratio would be only about 1.51%. Although the NPL ratio has decreased, the absolute amount of non-performing loans across the entire system continues to increase along with credit expansion. This indicates significant differentiation in asset quality and debt resolution capacity among credit institutions. Therefore, assessing the safety of the banking system should not be based solely on the published non-performing loan ratio, but should also consider data on non-performing loan balances, Group 2 loans, restructured loans, non-performing loan coverage ratios, provisioning costs, and the degree of credit concentration in potentially risky sectors across the entire banking system.
Developing the capital market is not just about expanding the scale of mobilization, but also about rebalancing the financial structure and strengthening confidence with verifiable commitments. Reducing dependence on bank credit requires the bond and stock markets to be capable of supplying medium and long-term capital flows to meet the demands of high double-digit economic growth, with a suitable transition roadmap to avoid causing liquidity shocks to the economy.
To achieve this, it is necessary to simultaneously improve the quality of issuing companies, ensure information transparency, promote the role of independent credit ratings, and protect the rights of investors. Expanding the participation of insurance companies, pension funds, and investment funds is also an important direction to create a stable long-term capital source for the market. The measure of success lies not only in the amount of capital raised, but also in the ability to deliver capital to the right companies, at the right time, with risks identified and appropriately valued. This is the foundation for “trust” to become a real value, promoting the development of the capital market in the right direction, safely and sustainably in the medium and long term.
