Mr. Phung Xuan Minh, [Chairman of the Board of Directors of Phat Thinh Group & Saigon Ratings].
Entering 2026, the Vietnamese real estate market continues its recovery process amidst a positive macroeconomic growth momentum, improved investment activity, and the gradual resolution of legal obstacles faced by many projects. However, the recovery process is uneven across segments, regions, and business groups.
In the overall pictureof the REAL ESTATE MARKET AFTER 7 MONTHS, 2026 AND OUTLOOK FOR THE END OF 2027, the most noteworthy signals currently are the resurgence of housing supply, improved but increasingly selective liquidity, primary real estate prices continuing to remain high, while industrial real estate continues to show attractiveness thanks to investment capital flows and production demand.
The Vietnamese real estate market in the first seven months of 2026 is showing many positive signs of recovery, but at the same time continues to face challenges regarding supply and demand structure, price levels, liquidity, legal aspects, and the financial capacity of businesses. The article“REAL ESTATE MARKET AFTER 7 MONTHS OF 2026 AND PROSPECTUS FOR THE END OF 2027”focuses on analyzing three key areas:
Part oneprovides an overview of developments in the residential, resort, industrial, office, and commercial-service segments;
The second partidentifies the difficulties, challenges, and risks impacting the market recovery process.
Part threeassesses development trends and prospects in the short and medium term up to the end of 2027. Through this, the article provides an overall perspective on the market’s shift towards a more competitive, selective, and sustainable development phase. The following is Part one: The Real Estate Market after 7 months of 2026.
1. Overview of real estate market activity after seven months of 2026
The macroeconomic foundation in the first half of 2026 continues to create favorable conditions for the recovery of the real estate market. According to the General Statistics Office, GDP in the second quarter of 2026 increased by8.39%compared to the same period last year, bringing the GDP growth for the first six months to8.18%. The industrial and construction sector grew by approximately9.81%, while the industrial production index increased by10.8%and the processing and manufacturing sector increased by approximately11.4%.
Investment flows also maintained a positive trend. Total social investment implemented in the first six months reached approximatelyVND 1,807.8 trillion, an increase of 12.9% compared to the same period last year. Notably, total registered foreign direct investment (FDI) by the end of June reached approximatelyUSD 34.65 billion, an increase of 61%; implemented FDI reached approximatelyUSD 13.03 billion, an increase of 11.2%.
In the real estate sector, supply is recovering more clearly. According to VARS IRE, in the first six months of 2026, approximately98,000 residential properties were offered for sale, an increase of about 50% compared to the same period last year; of which more than 70,000 were new supply. The second quarter alone recorded nearly34,000 new properties launched for sale.
Liquidity has also improved, but the recovery rate is slower than that of supply. Approximately48,000 transactionswere recorded in the first six months of the year, of which new supply accounted for about 43,000 transactions, corresponding to an absorption rate of about58%. This indicates that the market is shifting from a state of supply shortage to a phase where buyers have more choices and capital is increasingly concentrated on projects with clear legal status, good progress, and proven developer capabilities.
2. The residential real estate market
Residential real estate continues to play a dominant role, but the supply structure remains imbalanced.
In the first six months of 2026, apartment buildings accounted for approximately70% of the total housing supply, while low-rise houses and land plots accounted for only about 30%. Notably, the high-end apartment segment accounted for about45% of the apartment supply, the luxury and ultra-luxury segment accounted for an additional 33%, while mid-range apartments only accounted for about22%.
The shortage of affordable commercial housing for the majority of the population continues to be a major problem for the market. Affordable commercial housing is almost non-existent in the new supply in many major cities, meaning the gap between house prices and real income has not narrowed significantly.
In terms of transactions, apartments accounted for approximately73% of the total residential real estate transactionsin the first six months. Of these, apartments priced between 50 and 80 million VND/m² accounted for 46% of transactions, reflecting continued demand for products with more affordable prices compared to high-end and luxury segments.
Primary market prices remain high. According to VARS IRE, the average primary market apartment price in Q2/2026 reached approximatelyVND 80 million/m², an increase of about 10% compared to 2025; the average for the first six months was approximately VND 76.5 million/m².
Another noteworthy point is the increasing differentiation among developers. Large real estate development companies recorded an absorption rate of around70%, while the remaining companies only achieved about38%. The market is therefore gradually shifting towards competition based on financial capacity, brand, legal compliance, product quality, and the ability to fulfill commitments, rather than solely relying on expectations of price increases.
Alongside commercial housing, social housing continues to be promoted. In the first six months of 2026, the whole country completed96 social housing projects with 27,636 units; at the same time, 866 projects are being implemented with a scale of more than 757,000 units, creating a basis for gradually supplementing the housing supply to meet real needs.
3. The resort real estate market
The resort real estate market is showing signs of recovery, but the recovery is not uniform across different product types.
The positive foundation comes from the growth of the tourism industry. In the first six months of 2026, Vietnam welcomed approximately12.3 million international visitors, an increase of 14.9% compared to the same period. This is an important supporting factor for hotel and accommodation operations and resort projects with practical potential.
However, the resort real estate market remains highly fragmented. According to BHS Group, the supply of high-rise resort apartments increased significantly in the second quarter compared to the previous quarter. Meanwhile, some market data from DKRA shows that the liquidity of resort villas and condotels remains low compared to the scale of supply.
This indicates that the recovery of the tourism industry has not fully translated into a recovery of the resort real estate market. Investors are increasingly interested inlegal aspects, operational capabilities, occupancy rates, and actual cash flow,rather than simply expecting asset price appreciation.
4. Industrial real estate market
Industrial real estate continues to be one of the most promising segments of the market in 2026.
According to JLL, in Q1 2026, the industrial park occupancy rate in the North reached approximately81.6%, with an average rental price of around US$170.2/m² for the entire lease term. In the South, the occupancy rate reached approximately84%, with an average rental price of around US$210.1/m² for the entire lease term.
The market for ready-built factory space also maintained relatively strong demand. Occupancy rates in the North reached approximately 81.3%, while in the South they were around 86.5%.
The outlook for this segment is supported by three key drivers: industrial production growth, FDI inflows, and the expansion of transportation and logistics infrastructure. As the manufacturing sector continues to grow and Vietnam maintains its attractiveness to international investors, demand for industrial land, ready-built factories, warehousing, and logistics is expected to remain strong.
5. Real estate market for office and commercial/service rentals.
The office market in 2026 is expected to be relatively stable but will continue to be differentiated by location and asset quality.
According to JLL, in Q1 2026, Ho Chi Minh City had approximately1.861 million m² of Grade A and B office space, with the vacancy rate decreasing to around 13.3%. Rental prices for Grade A office space in the central area reached approximately US$64.7/m²/month, while Grade B was around US$33.6/m²/month.
In Hanoi, the total office supply reached approximately2.116 million m², with over 36,000 m² of new space added in the first quarter. Rental rates for Grade A offices were around US$37.1/m²/month and for Grade B offices around US$20.6/m²/month.
A prominent market trend is“flight to quality,” as businesses increasingly prioritize buildings with convenient locations, high operational quality, green building standards, energy efficiency, and a modern work environment.
For commercial real estate, the market continues to be supported by domestic purchasing power. Total retail sales of goods and consumer service revenue in the first six months of 2026 reached approximatelyVND 3,889.5 trillion, an increase of 12.9% compared to the same period. In Ho Chi Minh City, the vacancy rate for retail space in the central area in the first quarter was only about3%, indicating that prime commercial locations remain highly attractive.
