(Mr.): Phung Xuan Minh, [Chairman of the Board of Directors of Phat Thinh Group & Saigon Ratings].
Despite positive signs of recovery in the early months of 2026, the Vietnamese real estate market is still undergoing restructuring and facing numerous challenges. The recovery in supply has not fully been accompanied by a corresponding improvement in demand; selling prices in many segments continue to remain high; while issues related to legal matters, planning, land, and the financial capacity of businesses still create significant pressure.
In the REAL ESTATE MARKETOUTLOOK AFTER 7 MONTHS OF 2026 AND END OF 2027, three major groups of challenges and risks directly impacting the market’s sustainable recovery prospects can be identified.
1. Difficulties and challenges regarding supply and demand, liquidity, inventory, and selling prices.
One of the prominent issues in the real estate market in 2026 is thatwhile supply has recovered in quantity, the product structure is still not balanced with actual demand.
According to VARS IRE, in the first six months of 2026, approximately 98,000 housing units were offered for sale, an increase of about 50% compared to the same period last year, of which more than 70,000 were new supply. However, the majority of the apartment supply is concentrated in the high-value segment. Luxury apartments account for about 45% of the apartment supply, the luxury and ultra-luxury segment accounts for about 33%, while the mid-range segment only accounts for about 22%.
This indicates that the market continues to experiencea mismatch between the supply structure and the affordability of homebuyers. While the demand for housing for actual living needs, especially in large cities and areas with high labor concentrations, remains very high, affordable commercial housing products are almost absent from the market.
Liquidity has recovered but not at a rate commensurate with the increase in supply. Approximately 48,000 transactions were recorded in the first six months of the year, while the absorption rate of new supply reached about 58%. This indicates that buyers are becoming increasingly cautious, have more options, and are no longer easily accepting projects lacking advantages in terms of legal aspects, location, quality, or construction progress.
Another challenge isthe continued high level of real estate prices. According to VARS IRE, the average price of primary apartments in Q2 2026 is expected to reach approximately VND 80 million/m², an increase of about 10% compared to 2025. Given that the income of most people has not increased at a pace commensurate with the increase in house prices over the past several years, the accessibility of housing for those with genuine housing needs continues to face pressure.
Instead of directly reducing list prices, many businesses tend to use discount policies, interest rate subsidies, extended payment schedules, or sales promotion programs. This helps maintain primary market prices but also shows that competitive pressure and the need to sell goods still exist.
In the secondary market, differentiation is becoming more pronounced. Properties with complete legal documentation, established residential communities, good infrastructure connections, and rental potential continue to maintain liquidity. Conversely, properties that experienced rapid price increases primarily based on planning expectations or speculation may face downward pressure and prolonged periods of liquidity loss.
Therefore, the major challenge for the market in the coming period is not just increasing supply, but more importantly,directing that supply to the segments that the market is actually capable of absorbing.
2. Difficulties and challenges regarding the investment and business environment.
Besides supply and demand issues, the legal environment and investment procedures continue to be major factors affecting the speed of real estate project implementation.
Over the years, many projects have been delayed due to the need to simultaneously handle procedures related to investment, land, planning, construction, determination of financial obligations, land valuation, and land clearance. When one step in the procedural chain is not completed, the entire project implementation process can be stalled, increasing capital costs and prolonging the time to bring the product to market.
In 2026, the Government will continue to implement solutions to resolve outstanding projects. Notably, Decree 147/2026/ND-CP introduces several specific mechanisms to handle long-standing projects, including issues related to land use, investor selection, and procedures arising from projects with complex legal histories.
Alongside addressing existing issues, the market is also entering a phase requiringhigher levels of transparency and data standardization. From 2026, the implementation of an information system and electronic identification codes for real estate products, as stipulated in Decree 357/2025/ND-CP, is expected to contribute to improved product management and monitoring, as well as increased market information transparency.
However, the process of institutional reform also presents adaptation challenges for businesses. As regulations on land, planning, finance, and information disclosure become increasingly stringent, businesses with large project portfolios but incomplete legal frameworks may face higher compliance costs and prolonged restructuring times.
Issues related toland valuation, financial obligations, and land clearancecontinue to impact project input costs. As land prices and development costs rise, businesses find it difficult to lower output prices, thus contributing to the maintenance of high housing prices.
Thus, the challenge of the current real estate investment environment lies not only in resolving old legal obstacles but also in the ability to build a mechanism that is sufficiently transparent, consistent, and predictable to reduce costs and risks for investors in the long term.
3. Competitive risks in the real estate market
The market recovery process in 2026 is accompanied by a period ofstrong consolidation and repositioning among real estate businesses.
In the first six months of the year, the number of newly established real estate businesses continued to increase, while the number of businesses withdrawing from the market was also significant. This reflects an environment that both attracts new capital and creates significant pressure on businesses with weak financial capabilities or those with problematic project portfolios.
The differentiation is also evident in sales performance. According to VARS IRE data, large developers achieved an absorption rate of approximately70%, while the remaining businesses only reached about38%. This gap shows that the market is increasingly prioritizing businesses with strong brands, financial resources, complete legal documentation, and project implementation capabilities.
In the context of continuously increasing supply, competition will no longer primarily be about whether a business has projects to sell, but will shift toproduct quality, real-world usability, delivery reliability, financial policies, and the ability to create a service ecosystem.
Competitive risk also increases for businesses that use high financial leverage. When a project sells slower than planned, cash flow declines while debt obligations and capital costs remain, forcing the business to restructure assets, enter into investment partnerships, transfer the project, or raise additional capital.
Conversely, the consolidation process also creates opportunities for financially sound businesses to expand their market share through mergers and acquisitions, new land development, and participation in segments with real demand.
Overall, the challenges and risks facing the real estate market in 2026 do not indicate a widespread market downturn, but rather reflecta transition to a new competitive structure. In this structure, capital, legal frameworks, asset quality, cash flow generation capabilities, and corporate governance will increasingly determine survival and growth.
This also serves as a crucial foundation for assessing trendsand development prospects in the real estate market in the short and medium term, especially from the end of 2026 to the end of 2027.
