(*) Mr. Phung Xuan Minh, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Phat Thinh Group & Saigon Ratings.
Entering 2026, the Vietnamese real estate market continues to recover amidst sustained economic growth, expanding investment and FDI inflows, and the gradual resolution of legal obstacles for many projects. After nine months, the market has recorded positive changes in supply, transactions, and investment activities, especially in segments linked to real demand.
However, the recovery process remains uneven. Housing prices in major cities remain high relative to affordability; the supply structure does not truly match demand; while many real estate businesses continue to face pressure regarding cash flow, capital costs, and financial obligations.
Notably, the market is shifting towards a more competitive and differentiated state. As supply gradually increases and buyers have more choices, financial capacity, project quality, legal transparency, implementation progress, and the developer’s reputation are increasingly becoming decisive factors in product sales, capital mobilization, and maintaining market position.
Saigon Ratings believes that the Vietnamese real estate market is shifting from a “debugging and recovery” phase to a “recovery coupled with competition, differentiation, and restructuring” phase, thereby shaping the market outlook for the end of 2026, 2027, and the medium term.
1. The macroeconomic foundation continues to support the market recovery process.
Against the backdrop of a continuously complex international political, economic, and trade environment, Vietnam’s economy in the first nine months of 2026 continued its positive growth momentum, with solid foundations built upon the simultaneous recovery of several key economic sectors such as industrial production, trade, consumption, investment, real estate, and services and tourism. Notably, the growth momentum stemmed not only from the expansion of the economy’s scale but also from strong support from production and business activities, attracting foreign investment, and the increasingly prominent competitive position of the Vietnamese economy in the global supply chain.
Investment activities continued to expand. Total social investment in the first nine months reached approximately VND 3,109.6 trillion, an increase of 15.1% compared to the same period last year. Foreign direct investment (FDI) reached approximately US$21.07 billion, an increase of about 12.1%; of which the real estate business sector recorded approximately US$1.59 billion in implemented capital. Notably, FDI inflows into the processing and manufacturing sector reached approximately US$17.4 billion, accounting for over 80% of total implemented FDI. This is a significant supporting factor for the prospect of increased demand for industrial land, ready-built factories, warehouses, and logistics services.
The aforementioned economic growth indicators show that the recovery of the real estate market in the first nine months of 2026 relied not only on policy factors but was also supported by the real growth of the national economy. However, it should be noted that high economic growth does not necessarily mean a corresponding increase in real estate purchasing power. House prices, interest rates, access to credit, and income levels continue to be limiting factors in the absorption capacity of many segments.
2. The supply of residential real estate has recovered, but the supply-demand structure remains imbalanced.
Residential real estate continues to be the largest segment of the market. In the first half of 2026, approximately 98,000 housing units were offered for sale, an increase of about 50% year-on-year; of which more than 70,000 were new supply. Around 48,000 transactions were recorded, with an absorption rate of approximately 58% for new supply.
Saigon Ratings believes that the increase in market supply is a positive sign after a long period where a significant number of projects faced difficulties and legal obstacles in investment procedures, leading to prolonged delays. Recently, the number of newly licensed projects and real estate products has also increased sharply, creating a basis for the market to continue to have more supply in the short and medium term.
As market supply improves, buyers have more choices and competition among developers increases. The market is therefore gradually shifting from a state of supply shortage to one where project quality, pricing, legal compliance, and developer reputation play an increasingly important role in the sale and consumption of products, including both existing and new properties.
However, a notable bottleneck in the current real estate market remains the imbalance in product structure. The majority of new supply in major cities is still concentrated in the mid- and high-end segments, while the supply of commercial and social housing at prices affordable to the majority of those with genuine housing needs is limited. This can lead to a sharp increase in market supply, but the absorption capacity does not increase proportionally. In the long term, a sustainable market requires improvements in both the quantity and structure of product supply.
3. Real estate prices remain high but the differentiation is becoming increasingly clear.
Saigon Ratings notes that current real estate prices in the primary market in many major cities continue to remain high. The average price of primary apartments in the first half of 2026 was approximately VND 76.5 million/m², with the second quarter reaching around VND 80 million/m². The pressure to maintain high real estate prices stems from land costs, construction costs, land clearance costs, financial obligations, and capital costs. In addition, the structure of new supply in the market focuses heavily on projects with high-quality real estate product segments, which also contributes to the increase in average selling prices.
However, in reality, the listed price does not fully reflect the actual market price. Instead of directly reducing the selling price, many developers have implemented sales policies such as discounts, interest rate subsidies, extended payment schedules, or grace periods to encourage transactions. Therefore, when assessing market health, it is necessary to distinguish between the published price and the actual price after commercial incentives.
In the secondary market, differentiation is becoming increasingly clear. Properties with complete legal documentation, established communities, convenient infrastructure connections, and rental potential continue to maintain better liquidity. Conversely, properties that rely primarily on planning expectations or speculation may face longer liquidity periods.
4. Industrial real estate continues to be a bright spot.
Saigon Ratings predicts that industrial real estate will continue to be among the most positive segments of the real estate market in the first nine months of 2026. The strong increase in manufacturing and business activities, FDI inflows, and the expansion of transportation infrastructure continue to create real demand for industrial parks, ready-built factories, warehouses, and logistics projects.
The prospects for the industrial real estate segment stem not only from traditional land leasing demand but also extend to integrated industrial park models offering services, expert housing, worker housing, data centers, modern warehousing, and high-tech manufacturing facilities. In the medium and long term, localities with advantages in transportation, seaports, airports, labor resources, and supply chain connectivity will continue to have an edge in attracting new manufacturing projects.
5. Office and commercial real estate recovers selectively.
The office real estate market in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City continues to see a “flight to quality” trend, with tenants prioritizing buildings in good locations, with high operational quality, energy efficiency, and meeting increasingly demanding requirements for the working environment. The supply of Grade A office space continues to increase, but this also creates greater competitive pressure for occupancy rates. High-quality office properties in convenient locations remain preferred, while older projects may require upgrades or adjustments to pricing policies.
For commercial real estate, total retail sales of goods and consumer service revenue in the first nine months reached approximately VND 5,925.7 trillion, an increase of 13.4% compared to the same period in 2025. This provides a favorable foundation for shopping malls, retail spaces, and F&B, service, and entertainment models in major cities.
6. Resort real estate is supported by tourism growth, but the level of recovery remains differentiated.
In the first nine months of 2026, Vietnam is expected to welcome approximately 17.7 million international tourists, an increase of about 14.5% compared to the same period in 2025. The recovery of the tourism industry creates favorable conditions for the business operations of hotels, resorts, and other accommodation properties with practical operating capacity.
However, the increase in tourist numbers does not necessarily mean a simultaneous recovery of the resort real estate investment market. Condotel products, resort villas, or projects heavily reliant on guaranteed returns still need careful evaluation regarding legal aspects, operational efficiency, and cash flow generation potential.
Overall, after the first nine months of 2026, the market has shown a clearer recovery but is shifting to a new competitive state where the quality of growth is more important than the rate of asset price increases.
