(*) Mr. Phung Xuan Minh, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Phat Thinh Group & Saigon Ratings.
1. The supply-demand imbalance continues to be the biggest structural challenge facing the market.
The supply of real estate on the market has recovered, but there is still a shortage of products that are affordable for buyers. In major cities, the supply of new apartments continues to lean towards the mid- to high-end segments. Meanwhile, the demand for real housing for middle-income customers, young people, and the urban workforce remains very high.
This has created a paradox: the market has more products, but not all of them are affordable for buyers. Without improving the supply structure, the market may experience an increase in supply but a corresponding decrease in absorption rates in the short and medium term.
2. High real estate prices continue to limit purchasing power.
Real estate prices in many major cities have risen faster than incomes for an extended period, reducing the accessibility of housing for those with genuine housing needs. In this context, developers may continue to employ solutions such as interest rate subsidies, deferred payment schedules, discounts, and incentives instead of directly reducing list prices.
This helps maintain price levels but also indicates increasing competitive pressure in sales. In the medium and long term, if real estate prices continue to rise faster than the general income level of society, the market will face the risk of shrinking the group of customers who can actually buy.
3. Interest rates, credit, and the cost of capital remain factors to monitor.
Saigon Ratings believes that real estate is a highly sensitive sector to interest rates. In the first nine months of 2026, the average CPI increased by approximately 4.52%, indicating that price pressure persists and could affect the room for maneuver in monetary policy. Therefore, if the cost of capital increases, the impact will be felt simultaneously on both the supply and demand sides.
For homebuyers, higher mortgage interest rates reduce access to credit and increase repayment pressure. For businesses, increased capital costs will impact profitability, investment progress, and project implementation capabilities. This risk is particularly noteworthy for real estate businesses that employ high levels of financial leverage or rely heavily on short-term funding.
4. The legal aspects of investment projects continue to be a factor creating competitive differentiation.
Although significant progress has been made in resolving legal obstacles to investment projects in recent times, the speed and efficiency of the process still vary between localities and individual projects. Issues such as planning, land valuation, financial obligations, land clearance, land use conversion, and licensing procedures can still prolong the implementation time of real estate projects.
For real estate developers, delays in completing legal documents and investment procedures mean increased capital costs and delayed investment cash flow. For real estate buyers, the legal status of the property is increasingly becoming one of the primary criteria when choosing an investment. Therefore, real estate projects with complete legal investment documentation will continue to have a significant competitive advantage in the market.
5. Increased market supply impacts the balance of competition in the market.
One of the most significant changes in the market in 2026 is the significant improvement in the supply of real estate products. While some areas previously experienced product shortages, in the medium and long term, buyers will likely have more options.
This changes the balance between sellers and buyers. Projects with unattractive locations, excessively high prices, or slow progress may face lower absorption rates. Competition will therefore shift sharply from “having products to sell” to “which product offers better value for the buyer.”
6. The financial pressure on real estate businesses remains a significant concern.
The market recovery process does not mean that the financial problems of businesses have been completely resolved. Many businesses still have to simultaneously deal with bank debt, maturing bonds, construction costs, land-related financial obligations, and payments to contractors. Meanwhile, cash flow depends heavily on the progress of business operations for each project’s real estate products.
If sales fall short of expectations, businesses may have to increase discounts, transfer projects, enter into investment partnerships, or restructure assets. From a credit perspective, Saigon Ratings believes that the ability to maintain cash flow and capital structure of real estate development companies will be one of the most important factors differentiating the creditworthiness of developers in the market.
7. The process of competition and business consolidation will intensify.
As customers become more cautious and supply increases, the market will move towards competition based on actual capabilities. Businesses with healthy balance sheets, strong brands, complete legal compliance, and a reliable delivery history will have a distinct advantage.
Conversely, businesses employing high financial leverage or owning numerous slow-progressing projects may continue to face pressure to restructure. This could spur mergers and acquisitions (M&A), investment partnerships, and project transfers in 2027 and in the long term.
8. Risks from the international economic environment
Saigon Ratings notes that, in addition to the current inherent difficulties, challenges, and risks of the Vietnamese economy, the real estate market is also affected by exchange rates, international interest rates, global trade, and investment flows. Fluctuations in exchange rates or the cost of importing raw materials can impact the investment costs of development projects in general and real estate projects in particular.
For industrial real estate, the outlook remains positive, but the pace of expansion depends on manufacturing, trade, and Vietnam’s ability to attract FDI. Therefore, Q4 2026 can be seen as a time when the real estate market continues to recover and gradually enters a new business cycle, but must face a thorough assessment of the actual health of businesses in the market.
