(Mr): Phung Xuan Minh. [Chairman of the Board of Directors of PT Group & Saigon Ratings].
Vietnam is entering a new phase of development with the aspiration to become a developed, high-income country. To realize this goal, the economy cannot continue to rely primarily on investment capital, cheap labor, resource exploitation, and processing and assembly. The restructuring of global supply chains, the rapid development of artificial intelligence, and increasingly stringent green standards are demanding a fundamental shift in development thinking.
The new economic growth model in the era of national developmentmust be built on a foundation of productivity, science and technology, innovation, digital transformation, high-quality human resources, and the self-reliance of the economy. This is not only a change in the drivers of growth, but also a process of upgrading institutions, businesses, infrastructure, and Vietnam’s position in the global value chain.
1. Trends of innovation and adaptation to the global economy.
The global economy is entering a period of significant volatility and uncertainty. The World Bank forecasts global growth in 2026 to reach approximately 2.5%, lower than the 2.9% of 2025. Geopolitical risks, energy price fluctuations, inflationary pressures, trade protectionism, and supply chain fragmentation continue to impact the development prospects of many countries.
In this context, competitive advantage is no longer determined primarily by natural resources or low labor costs. Institutional quality, technological level, labor productivity, data exploitation capabilities, and the speed of business adaptation are increasingly becoming the decisive factors in determining the position of each economy.
Artificial intelligence is profoundly changing the way we produce, manage, and deliver services. The OECD assesses that AI has the potential to significantly boost productivity growth in the next decade. Therefore, AI is not just a supporting tool but is becoming a foundational technology, directly impacting the structure of industries, the labor market, and national competitiveness.
Alongside digital transformation is the trend of green transformation. Requirements for emission reduction, traceability, clean energy use, circular economy, and social responsibility are becoming conditions for businesses to access international markets, capital, and supply chains.
For Vietnam, green transformation is not only a responsibility to protect the environment but also a strategy for development and enhancing competitiveness. Businesses that fail to meet green standards may gradually lose their export advantages, face difficulties in accessing international capital, and struggle to participate in the supply chains of global corporations.
International investment flows are also shifting more strongly towards semiconductors, data centers, clean energy, digital infrastructure, and high technology. Vietnam needs to shift from attracting foreign investment based on quantity to selecting quality projects, strengthening linkages with domestic businesses, promoting technology transfer, and increasing the percentage of value added retained within the economy.
2. Growth based on innovation and advanced science and technology.
The traditional growth model has helped Vietnam achieve many important accomplishments, but its limitations are increasingly becoming apparent. Increased investment, expanded credit, heavy labor utilization, and resource exploitation may generate growth in the short term, but it is difficult to guarantee long-term quality and sustainability.
The new economic growth model in the era of national developmentneeds to shift its focus from expanding scale to improving efficiency. The core drivers must be labor productivity, total factor productivity, science and technology, innovation, data, and high-quality human resources.
The processing and manufacturing industry still plays a fundamental role, but it needs to gradually shift from processing and assembly to research, design, smart manufacturing, high technology, brand building, and the provision of high value-added services. Vietnam needs not only to increase export volume but also to enhance the domestic value in each product.
Resolution No. 57-NQ/TW identifies science, technology, innovation, and digital transformation as top priority breakthroughs. By 2030, Vietnam aims for the digital economy to account for at least 30% of GDP; the contribution of total factor productivity to growth to over 55%; spending on research and development to reach approximately 2% of GDP; and over 40% of businesses to engage in innovation activities.
These goals indicate that the future economy must be increasingly driven by knowledge and data. Data should be viewed as a new productive resource; digital infrastructure must become essential; and AI, cloud computing, automation, and the Internet of Things must be deeply integrated into industry, agriculture, logistics, finance, education, healthcare, and public administration.
Businesses must become the center of the innovation ecosystem. They are both the entities commissioning research, investing in and applying technology, and the platforms for commercializing research results. The State plays the role of creating institutions, investing in foundational infrastructure, protecting intellectual property rights, and creating initial markets for new technological products.
The private sector needs to be promoted as one of the most important driving forces of the economy. Resolution No. 68-NQ/TW sets a target of having approximately 2 million enterprises by 2030; the private sector is expected to grow at an average rate of 10-12% per year and contribute about 55-58% of GDP.
Furthermore, the state-owned economy needs to focus on strategic sectors, ensuring major balances and investing in essential infrastructure. The foreign-invested sector must be more closely linked with Vietnamese businesses, research and development activities, human resource training, and domestic supply networks.
Effective coordination between the state-owned economy, the private economy, and the foreign investment sector will create a balanced and solid foundation for the new growth model.
3. Two centenary goals and a vision for development until 2050
The new growth model must directly serve the country’s two centenary goals. By 2030, the 100th anniversary of the Party’s founding, Vietnam strives to become a developing country with modern industry and a high-middle income. By 2045, the 100th anniversary of the nation’s founding, the goal is to become a developed country with a high income.
The period 2026–2030 is therefore of particular importance. Vietnam aims to raise GDP per capita to approximately US$8,500 by 2030, expand the scale of the digital economy, and enhance the contribution of productivity to growth.
This is the stage where the fundamental foundations of the new growth model must be completed, including modern development institutions, synchronized transportation and energy infrastructure, a national database, an innovation ecosystem, and a sufficiently strong national business sector.
By 2045, success will not be measured solely by GDP size or per capita income. A developed nation must have high productivity, efficient institutions, advanced science and technology, internationally competitive businesses, and a population that enjoys an increasingly better quality of life.
Economic growth must go hand in hand with social progress, environmental protection, cultural development, and strengthening people’s confidence. The fruits of development need to be translated into jobs, income, educational opportunities, healthcare, and a better living environment for the entire society.
The vision for 2050 continues to expand the requirements for development towards green, modern, and sustainable growth. The national strategy on green growth aims to build an economy that uses resources efficiently, reduces emissions, develops clean energy, smart cities, and a circular economy.
This is a necessary step for Vietnam to both improve the quality of growth and achieve the goal of net-zero emissions, while increasing its resilience to climate change.
Conclude
The new economic growth model in the era of national developmentis a shift from growth heavily reliant on capital, cheap labor, and resources to growth based on productivity, knowledge, technology, data, innovation, and green development.
