(*) Mr. Phung Xuan Minh, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Phat Thinh Group & Saigon Ratings.
1. Forecast for Q4/2026: The market will continue its strong but selective recovery.
In the last three months of 2026, the real estate market has the potential to continue its recovery trend thanks to a positive economic foundation, expanding investment activities, stable growth in FDI inflows, and the process of removing legal obstacles to investment projects.
The addition of new real estate products will make the market more vibrant, but at the same time, it will create greater competitive pressure. Accordingly, projects with complete legal documentation, good progress, reasonable prices, and reputable developers will have a higher absorption rate. Conversely, products with high prices but lacking differentiation or relying mainly on expectations of price appreciation will face more difficulties.
2. Housing continues to be the largest segment, but the growth driver will shift towards real demand.
In 2027, housing will continue to play a central role in the market. However, the growth structure is likely to shift towards prioritizing products that meet real needs. Housing segments that meet actual housing needs, social housing, and projects with clear legal documentation will have positive prospects.
Buyers will also increasingly focus on total cost of ownership, payment schedule, interest rates, and quality of life, rather than solely on expectations of price appreciation. This trend indicates that the real estate market is shifting from investment based on expectations to investment based on use value and actual cash flow.
3. Real estate prices will become more diversified rather than increasing uniformly.
Primary market prices in major cities may remain high due to input costs not decreasing significantly. However, the likelihood of a widespread price increase across the entire market is lower as supply improves.
In 2027, prices are likely to differentiate based on five factors: location, infrastructure, legal aspects, project quality, and cash flow generation potential. Areas benefiting from highways, ring roads, metros, airports, and logistics centers may continue to attract better investment. However, sustainable price increases for real estate projects are only predicted to occur when transportation infrastructure conditions are capable of generating more effective economic activity and employment, and forming actual residential areas.
4. Industry and logistics continue to be a high-potential sector.
Industrial real estate is likely to remain one of the most robust growth segments in 2027.
The driving force comes from FDI, the processing and manufacturing sector, the restructuring of supply chains, and infrastructure development. Opportunities will expand from industrial park land to ready-built factories, warehouses, logistics centers, high-tech facilities, and data centers. Market areas with good connectivity to seaports, airports, and highway systems will continue to attract investment.
5. Office, retail, and resort properties recover based on property quality.
The office market continues its quality-first trend. Buildings with good locations, high operational standards, energy efficiency, and ESG compliance will have an advantage. For retail, consumer growth continues to be a key supporting factor, but performance will be highly differentiated by location and foot traffic.
For resort real estate, the recovery of tourism creates positive conditions, but growth potential will be concentrated in well-managed properties with clear legal standing and the ability to generate cash flow.
6. Infrastructure continues to reshape the real estate landscape.
Highways, ring roads, metros, airports, and logistics centers will continue to expand urban development space. Satellite areas and strategic transportation corridors could become new destinations for investment capital.
However, from a credit analysis perspective, it is necessary to clearly distinguish between value generated from actual infrastructure and price increases based on planning expectations. An asset only has a sustainable foundation when the infrastructure is developed synchronously and has the potential to create residential areas, jobs, commercial spaces, and actual business cash flow.
7. The divergence in developer credibility is becoming an increasingly evident trend.
The year 2027 may see a stronger differentiation among real estate businesses. Developers with sound financial structures, good access to capital, legally secured land, and project implementation capabilities will be better positioned to expand their market share.
Conversely, businesses with weak cash flow or those overly reliant on debt may need further restructuring. In this context, corporate creditworthiness no longer only affects the ability to borrow capital but also directly impacts sales potential. Buyers and investors will increasingly focus on the developer’s ability to fulfill commitments, construction progress, handover history, and information transparency.
Overall, the Vietnamese real estate market after the first nine months of 2026 has passed its most difficult phase and is entering a recovery cycle with a clearer foundation. High economic growth, expanding investment, positive FDI, increased consumption, and a recovering tourism industry are favorable factors for the market. However, challenges regarding supply and demand structure, price levels, affordability, capital costs, legal issues, and corporate cash flow have not yet been fully resolved.
Therefore, the market outlook for Q4 2026 and 2027 can be assessed cautiously and positively. The market is likely to continue growing, but will not return to a growth model based primarily on speculation, high leverage, and expectations of rapid price increases. Instead, a new structure is gradually forming, in which real demand, transparent legal frameworks, financial capacity, asset quality, infrastructure, and cash flow generation capabilities will become the decisive factors.
For real estate development companies, competitiveness in the new cycle depends not only on the size of their land bank but also on the quality of their financial statements, project completion capabilities, customer reputation, and long-term capital mobilization capacity. For investors, the focus will shift from seeking assets with rapid appreciation potential to a more thorough assessment of operational efficiency, legal aspects, liquidity, and the sustainability of cash flow. Therefore, it can be concluded that 2027 will likely not be a year of uniform growth across the entire market, but rather a year of differentiation, selection, and restructuring.
This development process will create the necessary filtering mechanism for the Vietnamese real estate market to move towards a more transparent, professional, and sustainable structure; while simultaneously enhancing the role of credit quality, corporate reputation, and governance capacity in determining long-term survival and sustainable development.
Saigon Ratings believes this is a particularly important factor: The next development cycle of the real estate market will increasingly be closely tied to the creditworthiness of developers and the actual quality of real estate assets, rather than solely based on the speed of business expansion, project portfolio, or price appreciation expectations. This is also the foundation for the market to enter a more in-depth growth phase in 2027 and in the long term.
Saigon Ratings. [08/10/2026]
