(Mr): Phung Xuan Minh. [Chairman of the Board of Directors of PT Group & Saigon Ratings].
Drawing lessons from international development and the dynamic dynamics of the global economy, Vietnam is facing the need to establish a new development path.Vietnam’s prospects in 2045depend not only on growth rate but also on its capacity for institutional innovation, human development, technological mastery, and harnessing the strength of the entire nation.
The era of transformation opens up opportunities for Vietnam to move from a developing economy to a modern, high-income industrial nation with an increasingly important role on the international stage. However, this aspiration can only be realized through groundbreaking thinking, decisive action, and profound reforms.
Key achievements after more than 40 years of reform.
The Doi Moi (Renovation) process, which began in 1986, marked a historically significant turning point for Vietnam. From an economy plagued by shortages of goods, high inflation, weak infrastructure, and difficult living conditions for its people, Vietnam has become one of the most dynamic and open economies in the region.
By 2025, Vietnam’s GDP is projected to grow by 8.02%, its economy reaching approximately US$514 billion, and its GDP per capita exceeding US$5,000. Vietnam has established trade relations with over 230 countries and territories, participates in 17 free trade agreements, and has become a crucial link in many global supply chains.
The country has also achieved great successes in poverty reduction, education, healthcare, infrastructure, urbanization, and international integration. From a position of being surrounded and embargoed, Vietnam has established diplomatic relations with most countries and built comprehensive or higher-level partnership frameworks with many major economies.
These results affirm the nation’s capacity for innovation, adaptability, and determination to succeed. This is an important foundation for Vietnam to enter a new stage of development with greater strength and momentum.
Long-term vision to 2045
The goal by 2030 is to transform Vietnam into a developing country with a modern industrial base and a high-middle income. By 2045, Vietnam aims to become a developed nation with a high income, a prosperous and civilized society, and a happy people.
To achieve that goal, Vietnam must maintain high growth over the long term. GDP per capita is projected to reach approximately US$8,500 by 2030. The digital economy is expected to contribute around 30% of GDP; the processing and manufacturing industry will account for approximately 28%; and total factor productivity will contribute over 55% to growth.
The Vision 2045 demands a radical shift in Vietnam’s development thinking. The nation cannot rely solely on resource exploitation, cheap labor, capital investment, and export processing. The new model must be based on productivity, technology, innovation, the green economy, the digital economy, and the strength of Vietnamese businesses.
Learning from international experience is necessary, but Vietnam must forge its own path, one that is consistent with the country’s history, culture, institutions, and development conditions.
Major challenges need to be addressed quickly.
The first challenge is the quality of institutions and the growth model. Some regulations overlap; administrative procedures and policy implementation processes are not synchronized in some areas. The economy remains heavily dependent on foreign investment, labor, and the foreign-invested manufacturing sector.
The second challenge is the strength of the domestic economy. The private sector contributes about half of the GDP and creates the majority of jobs, but the majority of businesses are small, have limited financial capacity, invest little in research, and do not have many global brands.
The third challenge is the ability to participate deeply in international value chains. Vietnam has a large export turnover, but many activities are still focused on processing and assembly. The proportion of technology, components, and added value held by domestic enterprises remains limited.
Furthermore, the quality of infrastructure, logistics, human resources, and innovation capacity has not fully met development requirements. The proportion of workers with degrees and certifications remains low; the shortage of engineers, technology experts, and high-quality management personnel is becoming increasingly evident.
National governance capacity must also be enhanced. Vietnam needs a streamlined, transparent, data-driven system with clear decentralization and accountability.
National destiny, geopolitical position, and prospects for takeoff.
Vietnam is facing a unique development opportunity. Its central location in Southeast Asia, near important shipping routes and major manufacturing centers in Asia, gives Vietnam many advantages in participating in the restructuring of supply chains.
A market of over 100 million people, a large workforce, a stable socio-political environment, and an extensive network of trade agreements are significant advantages. By 2025, Vietnam will maintain diplomatic relations with 194 countries and have comprehensive or higher-level partnership frameworks with 42 countries.
The trend of shifting manufacturing, semiconductor development, artificial intelligence, renewable energy, logistics, and the digital economy opens up new avenues for growth. However, these opportunities will only become a driving force for takeoff when Vietnam has sufficient infrastructure, human resources, businesses, and institutions to attract high-quality capital flows.
A nation’s destiny doesn’t just come from favorable circumstances. It’s built upon the courage to choose the right strategies and the ability to transform opportunities into concrete development results.
Revive culture and promote the strength of national unity.
Culture is the spiritual foundation, the source of intrinsic strength, and the identity of a nation. Economic development without a cultural foundation can lead to a decline in trust, increased inequality, and the loss of the values that create national sustainability.
Cultural revitalization must begin with education, family, community, public service ethics, and corporate culture. Values such as patriotism, compassion, a love of learning, solidarity, honesty, and responsibility must be nurtured in modern life.
The strength of national unity must also include nearly 6 million Vietnamese people living abroad. The overseas Vietnamese community not only contributes remittances but also possesses knowledge, technology, investment capital, and a vast international network.
Vietnam needs to create favorable conditions for overseas Vietnamese to participate in research, investment, innovation, and the promotion of national culture. At the same time, the integration process must help Vietnam absorb the best of human culture without losing its identity.
Institutional reform and establishing a new growth model.
The next development revolution must begin with institutions. Laws need to be transparent, stable, predictable, and guarantee freedom of business. The system of “request and grant” must be narrowed; compliance costs need to be further reduced; and the property rights and legitimate interests of businesses must be protected.
The new growth model needs to be based on science, technology, digital transformation, green transformation, and high-quality human resources. The state must shift strongly from administrative management to creation, service, and results-based governance.
The private sector needs to be identified as the most important driving force of the economy. The goal by 2030 is to have approximately 2 million businesses, with the private sector contributing 55–58% of GDP and forming many Vietnamese corporations capable of competing internationally.
Attracting FDI also needs to enter a new phase. Instead of focusing solely on total registered capital, Vietnam needs to prioritize projects with high technology, research activities, human resource training, and linkages with domestic businesses. FDI only truly creates long-term value when it helps Vietnamese businesses participate more deeply in the supply chain.
Vietnam’s development aspirations and position in 2045
Vietnam’s historic opportunity has been formed by the convergence of the achievements of the Doi Moi (Renovation) period, its international standing, global economic shifts, and the aspirations of over 100 million people.
The aspiration for prosperity is not just about achieving a high income. It is also about building a just and civilized society where everyone has access to education, healthcare, a safe living environment, and opportunities for development.
People’s happiness must be the ultimate measure of all policies. GDP growth is only meaningful when it translates into good jobs, stable incomes, social security, a clean environment, and confidence in the future.
To realizethe Vietnam 2045 vision, the country needs to combine national strength with the strength of the times; combine internal resources with international resources; and combine grand aspirations with concrete actions.
With a spirit of self-reliance, self-strength, and self-confidence, Vietnam has the foundation to confidently move into an era of progress, affirming its position as a powerful, prosperous, and responsible nation on the international stage.
Saigon Ratings [June 22, 2026]
