From creditworthiness to national capital costs
Currently, international credit rating agencies are assessing Vietnam’s national credit rating as follows: BB+/Stable Outlook (S&P Global Ratings); Fitch has maintained the BB+/Stable Outlook; as of May 4, 2026, Moody’s upgraded Vietnam’s outlook from Stable to Positive but kept the rating at Ba2. Thus, Vietnam’s national credit ratings of BB+ and Ba2 remain below the Investment Grade threshold. Fitch’s upgrading of some of Vietnam’s senior secured long-term debt instruments to BBB- is a positive signal for those instruments themselves, but it does not mean that the sovereign credit rating has reached Investment Grade.
From Saigon Ratings’ perspective, moving towards an Investment Grade rating should be considered a component of a national capital cost reduction strategy. A higher national credit rating, if it truly reflects a better credit foundation, could broaden the investor base and facilitate a narrower risk premium. However, upgrading the national credit rating must be the result of substantial and far-reaching reforms in economic institutions, growth, fiscal policy, public debt, the banking sector, external position, foreign exchange reserves, data transparency, and policy predictability.
Global interest rates and the timing dilemma.
The Asian Development Bank (ADB)’s September 2026 Asian Development Outlook report forecasts Vietnam’s GDP growth at 7.8% in 2026 and 7.6% in 2027, with inflation at 4.3% and 4.0%, respectively. The IMF currently forecasts Vietnam’s real growth in 2026 at around 7.1%. This growth foundation is a key supporting factor for its credit profile, but the external environment remains highly uncertain. The ADB also warns of risks from geopolitics, energy prices, tightening financial conditions, and global trade uncertainties.
Therefore, the cost of a USD bond issue not only reflects Vietnamese risk but also depends on the US Treasury, sovereign spread, market volatility, liquidity, maturity, and new issue premium. In an unfavorable market, a successful issuance in terms of bond volume may not necessarily be cost-effective. A suitable bond issuance strategy requires businesses to maintain readiness in terms of legal documentation, investor information, macroeconomic data, approval mechanisms, and underwriting syndicates, in order to quickly take advantage of a favorable market window.
Exchange Rate Risk: The “Borrow USD – Collect VND” Problem
For infrastructure projects, the major risks lie not only in interest rates but also in currency mismatches. Many transportation, urban, water supply, logistics, or energy projects generate revenue primarily in VND, while their international bond obligations are denominated in USD. If the VND depreciates against the USD, the debt repayment obligations converted to VND increase even if operating revenue remains unchanged. In principle, a $1 billion debt will see its VND repayment obligations increase by approximately 5% when the exchange rate increases, before other factors. This can degrade the DSCR and the project’s credit quality.
Cross-currency swap and long-term hedging issues can be costly, while a 10-20 year hedging market may not be deep enough for all investment projects. Therefore, stress testing of exchange rates, determination of minimum hedging, establishment of debt reserve accounts, and research into risk-sharing mechanisms with multilateral development institutions are necessary. Thus, securing international capital is not sufficient grounds to conclude that a project has a sound financial structure. The credit quality of investment projects must be assessed across the entire lifecycle of the debt obligation, including key factors such as construction, operation, revenue, legal aspects, refinancing, interest rates, and market exchange rates.
Government Decree 200/2026/ND-CP and the requirement to raise market standards.
Decree 200/2026/ND-CP, issued and effective June 5, 2026, regulates the offering and trading of privately placed corporate bonds domestically and the offering of corporate bonds to the international market. This is a crucial legal piece in the bond market’s transition from addressing a crisis of confidence to rebuilding discipline and sustainable development. For international issuances, businesses must simultaneously meet the standards of the issuing market, foreign exchange regulations, information disclosure requirements, and commitments to investors. This forces businesses to improve the quality of governance, financial reporting, cash flow management, and investor relations capabilities.
Vietnam currently has several favorable conditions: sustained high economic growth and continued promotion of institutional reforms. However, these are only necessary conditions for attracting international capital. The sufficient condition is that we need to shift from a mindset of “conducting an international bond issuance” to a strategy of building a complete ecosystem of viable solutions: Sovereign benchmarks, credit ratings, disclosure standards, institutional investors, market makers, hedge mechanisms, listing-custodial-settlement infrastructure, and credit enhancement mechanisms.
If the Vietnam International Financial Center is developed in a way that integrates with major financial centers, international bonds could become a strategic product. However, a financial center cannot be built solely on location or trading floors; the crucial foundation remains operational factors that adhere to international practices, such as transparency laws, governance standards, enforceability, and the quality of assets offered to the market.
We believe that the greatest value of Vietnam’s return to the international bond market does not lie in the amount of money raised from a single issuance. The greater value is the potential to reassess the country’s creditworthiness, establish a benchmark, and open a long-term path for the business sector and infrastructure projects to access global capital markets at increasingly reasonable costs.
In the context of increasing infrastructure capital needs, international bonds are not a “magic wand” and should not be used indiscriminately. However, if placed within a prudent debt management strategy, coupled with credit ratings, transparency, exchange rate risk management, and good project preparation, they could be one of the important capital channels helping Vietnam transition from a financial model heavily reliant on traditional domestic capital channels to a more balanced and in-depth capital market structure.
International Financial Centers in Ho Chi Minh City and Da Nang: Opening more “gateways” for international bonds.
The establishment of the Vietnam International Finance Center based on the “one center – two locations” model in Ho Chi Minh City and Da Nang opens a new approach to the strategy of mobilizing international capital. The Ministry of Finance stated that Resolution 222/2025/QH15 of the National Assembly and its guiding decrees have initially formed the legal framework for this operational model, encompassing areas such as finance and banking, capital markets, foreign exchange, anti-money laundering, infrastructure, and dispute resolution.
From a capital market perspective, the long-term goal should be to facilitate the issuance, listing, and trading of international debt instruments by the Vietnamese government and businesses through the ecosystem of the International Financial Centres in Ho Chi Minh City and Da Nang, while connecting with global financial centers and investor networks. This would enable Vietnam not only to raise capital in foreign markets but also to gradually build a domestic market infrastructure capable of handling cross-border transactions.
However, it is necessary to clearly distinguish between strategic direction and the feasibility of immediate implementation at the present time. The current legal framework and infrastructure of the International Finance Center in Ho Chi Minh City do not yet allow for an exchange dedicated to international bonds issued by the Government or enterprises. The Center’s governing body in Ho Chi Minh City is studying a proposal to establish an international bond exchange.
If the operational mechanisms of the International Financial Center are perfected, the benefits could extend far beyond simply creating an additional listing venue. Firstly, it could help establish a centralized hub for the issuance, listing, trading, and disclosure of international bonds. Secondly, it could facilitate connections between Vietnamese issuers and international investment banks, investment funds, insurance companies, pension funds, and development institutions. Thirdly, it could promote products such as green bonds, sustainability bonds, infrastructure bonds, and project bonds – instruments particularly well-suited to Vietnam’s long-term capital needs for infrastructure and green economic transformation.
For the government, issuing and listing an international sovereign bond within the Vietnamese International Financial Center ecosystem could have a dual significance: it could raise capital and establish a sovereign benchmark, while also creating a benchmark asset for the new financial center itself. For businesses, a domestic international issuance infrastructure could help reduce some friction in market access, increase recognition among international investors, and create a foundation for the development of a secondary market in the medium and long term.
However, we believe that for Ho Chi Minh City and Da Nang to truly become “gateways for international capital flows” in Vietnam, we need to simultaneously improve several key infrastructure layers: a legal framework for cross-border issuance and listing; English-language information disclosure standards; international payment, custody, and connectivity mechanisms; a system of market makers and institutional investors; foreign exchange management and risk prevention mechanisms; and finally, credit ratings and investor protection standards that are acceptable to the international market.
Therefore, the International Finance Centres in Ho Chi Minh City and Da Nang should not be viewed simply as two “new exchanges.” If properly designed, they could become the institutional infrastructure for Vietnam to shift from primarily sending businesses abroad to issue bonds to a position capable of organizing, valuing, and connecting international capital flows within the Vietnamese financial ecosystem.
Saigon Ratings. [September 29, 2026].
Theo Tạp chí điện tử Nhà đầu tư. [07:00 02/10/2026]
