(*) Mr. Phung Xuan Minh, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Phat Thinh Group & Saigon Ratings.
Vietnam’s economy maintained high growth momentum in the first nine months of 2026.
Vietnam’s economy in the first nine months of 2026 recorded outstanding growth results amidst a continuing complex international economic and trade environment. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the first nine months of 2026 increased by 9.01% compared to the same period in 2025, with the third quarter alone growing by 9.95%, higher than the 8.15% growth in the first quarter and 8.81% in the second quarter of 2026.
Vietnam’s economy in the first nine months of 2026 continued its positive growth momentum, with solid foundations built upon the simultaneous recovery of several key economic sectors such as industrial production, trade, consumption, investment, and tourism services. Notably, this growth was driven not only by the expansion of the economy’s scale but also by strong support from production and business activities, attracting foreign investment, and the increasingly prominent competitive position of the Vietnamese economy in the global supply chain.
The economic growth momentum is strengthening quarter by quarter during the first nine months of 2026. Sectors such as industry and construction, services, investment, consumption, attracting foreign direct investment (FDI), and export-oriented manufacturing continue to play a crucial role in overall growth. By economic sector, agriculture, forestry, and fisheries grew by 4.02%; industry and construction by 11.21%; and the services sector by 8.69%. Within this, manufacturing continues to be one of the biggest drivers, growing by 11.36%, while the construction sector grew by 12.22%.
Vietnam’s GDP structure for the first nine months of 2026 continues the trend of shifting towards a gradual decrease in the proportion of the agricultural sector, while increasing the role of the industrial, construction, and service sectors. The agriculture, forestry, and fisheries sector accounts for approximately 10.65% of the total national GDP; industry and construction account for 38.35%; services account for 42.97%; and product tax revenue less product subsidies accounts for approximately 8.03%.
Industry and investment have become important drivers of growth.
Industrial production maintained positive growth. The Industrial Production Index (IIP) for the first nine months of 2026 increased by approximately 12.3%, with the manufacturing sector growing by about 12.9%. The recovery of the manufacturing sector is not only reflected in output but also in investment demand and product consumption. The consumption index for the manufacturing industry increased by 12.8%, indicating that market absorption generally remains positive.
Notably, total social investment in the first nine months reached approximately VND 3,109.6 trillion, a 15.1% increase compared to the same period last year. The growth rate of accumulated assets reached 17.88%, significantly higher than the 8.51% increase in final consumption. This development shows that Vietnam’s economic growth in 2026 is receiving increasing support from investment activities. This is a positive sign for the country’s ability to expand its production capacity in the short and medium term, especially as public investment, FDI attraction, and investment from the business sector continue to be boosted.
However, the inventory index of products in the processing and manufacturing industry at the end of September 2026 increased by approximately 11.9% compared to the same period in 2025. This necessitates continued updating of information, monitoring, and assessment of the market’s product absorption capacity in the remaining months of 2026 and the beginning of 2027.
FDI continues to strengthen Vietnam’s position in regional supply chains.
One of the most notable highlights of Vietnam’s economic growth in the first nine months of 2026 was its ability to attract foreign direct investment (FDI). Total registered FDI capital reached approximately US$50.36 billion by the end of September, a 76.4% increase compared to the same period last year. Disbursed FDI capital reached approximately US$21.07 billion, a 12.1% increase, representing the highest nine-month disbursement level in recent years. Notably, the manufacturing sector continued to account for a large proportion of disbursed FDI capital, with approximately US$17.4 billion, equivalent to over 82% of total disbursed investment.
This result reflects Vietnam’s relative attractiveness in the restructuring of global supply chains. Besides its geographical advantages, market size, and network of free trade agreements, improvements in infrastructure, institutions, and the investment environment are creating favorable conditions for Vietnam to continue attracting new manufacturing capital flows. In the short and medium term, the challenges lie not only in increasing the scale of FDI but also in improving the quality of investment flows, increasing the technological content, localization rate, and linkages between FDI enterprises and domestic businesses; while prioritizing investment in semiconductor, high-tech, digital economy, and green energy sectors.
Imports and exports increased sharply, but the trade balance needs to be monitored.
International trade continued its strong growth in the first nine months of 2026. Total merchandise exports and imports reached approximately US$888.02 billion, a 30.4% increase compared to the same period in 2025. Of this, exports reached approximately US$434.30 billion, a 24.5% increase; and imports reached approximately US$453.72 billion, a 36.7% increase. The higher import growth rate compared to exports resulted in a trade deficit of approximately US$19.42 billion, whereas the same period in 2025 recorded a trade surplus.
However, Saigon Ratings believes that the sharp increase in imports does not necessarily reflect a negative trend. Approximately 94.1% of import value consists of production materials, including machinery, equipment, components, and raw materials for manufacturing. This indicates that a significant portion of the import growth stems from businesses expanding production and investing.
In the short and medium term, if imported machinery and raw materials are transformed into new production and export capacity, the current trade deficit can be seen as part of an investment expansion cycle. However, if the trade deficit persists, pressure on the exchange rate, balance of payments, and foreign exchange reserves will need to be closely monitored.
Consumption and tourism continue to support the service sector.
Along with industry and investment, domestic demand continued to contribute significantly to growth. Total retail sales of goods and consumer service revenue in the first nine months of 2026 reached approximately VND 5,925.7 trillion, an increase of 13.4%; excluding price factors, the increase was approximately 7.8%.
The tourism industry continues its strong recovery trend and is projected to enter a more positive growth cycle in the medium and long term. In the first nine months of 2026, Vietnam welcomed and served approximately 17.7 million international visitors, a 14.5% increase compared to the same period in 2025. This high increase in international visitors will create a ripple effect on the aviation, accommodation, food and beverage, transportation, trade, and related service sectors. This provides a favorable foundation for the service sector to continue maintaining its pivotal role in the economic structure and support growth targets in the fourth quarter of 2026.
Rising inflation necessitates a balance between growth and macroeconomic stability.
Alongside the positive aspects, the economy is beginning to face some notable pressures. The average CPI for the first nine months of 2026 increased by approximately 4.52%, while core inflation rose by 4.26%. In September alone, the CPI increased by 5.08% compared to the same period in 2025. Price pressures are concentrated in several sectors such as housing, utilities, construction materials, transportation, and food.
Therefore, in the context of expanding credit, investment, and consumer demand, the task of managing the economy in the remaining months of the year requires ensuring a balance between supporting growth and controlling inflation, exchange rates, liquidity, and credit quality.
High growth is essential, but quality and sustainability must be prioritized.
Overall, Vietnam’s economy in the first nine months of 2026 showed remarkable resilience and the ability to maintain relatively high growth rates. GDP increased by 9.01%, industry recovered strongly, FDI continued to expand, total social investment increased, and consumption and tourism maintained positive trends. This is an important foundation for Vietnam to enter the last three months of 2026 with favorable growth momentum and to prepare more solid conditions for 2027.
However, high growth rates also come with new demands for development quality. Increased inflationary pressure, a shift in the trade balance towards a deficit, significant capital requirements, and considerable reliance on FDI are issues that need close monitoring and careful assessment. Therefore, the policy focus in the next phase should not only be on maintaining GDP growth rates, but also on moving towards a higher-quality growth model based on productivity, technological innovation, institutional reform, capital market development, digital transformation, and green transformation.
Based on the achievements of the first nine months of 2026, Vietnam’s economic outlook for the fourth quarter of 2026 remains generally positive. However, the ability to maintain growth momentum in 2027 will depend significantly on factors impacting the global economic and political situation, trade developments, especially the outcome of negotiations and the signing of a reciprocal trade agreement with the United States aimed at a stable bilateral trade agreement; it will also depend on the effectiveness of macroeconomic management and the rate of improvement of the economy’s internal growth drivers.
