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6. Standardize the list of projects capable of attracting long-term capital.

According to an assessment cited in Investor Magazine, international investors require projects to have a clear financial structure, predictable cash flows, appropriate risk allocation mechanisms, and information profiles that meet international standards.

Saigon Ratings proposes establishing a four-step project screening process: (i) Assessing legality and economic efficiency; (ii) Modeling underlying cash flows and adverse scenarios; (iii) Determining capital structure, creditor protection commitments, and risk management plans; (iv) Assessing the creditworthiness of the issuer or project before contacting investors. The aim is to improve the quality of “investment goods” and reduce the information gap between those seeking capital and those providing it.

7. Strengthening investor confidence – A crucial condition for the sustainable development of the capital market.

Investor confidence is fundamental to the existence and development of the financial market. A large market lacking transparency, discipline, and effective investor protection mechanisms will struggle to maintain a stable capital flow.

Conversely, markets with transparent information disclosure, reliable risk assessment systems, and strong commitment enforcement capabilities are more favorable for developing a long-term investor base.

At the Vietnam Capital Market Forum 2026, a key message emphasized was that upgrading the market must go hand in hand with improving transparency, the quality of goods, and mechanisms to protect investors’ rights.

At the policy level, it is necessary to improve the stability, consistency, and predictability of the legal environment. At the market level, it is necessary to strengthen supervision, enforce information disclosure discipline, and address violations. At the enterprise level, it is necessary to improve governance, fulfill financial obligations, disclose information truthfully, and ensure accountability to investors.

In particular, it is necessary to develop an investment environment in which credit risk is identified, assessed, and valued transparently. Businesses with higher creditworthiness will have an easier time accessing suitable investor groups and negotiating capital costs; businesses with higher risk will need to accept corresponding yields, protection clauses, or funding conditions.

This forms the basis for establishing market discipline and improving the efficiency of resource allocation.

V. PROSPECTUS AND POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS FOR THE PERIOD 2026–2030

Despite the rapidly increasing demand for long-term capital in the economy, the outlook for the development of Vietnam’s capital market remains favorable.

The economy maintained high growth; domestic and foreign investment expanded; the stock market made progress in terms of international market classification; and the process of improving the legal framework and infrastructure of the financial market continued to be implemented.

However, favorable conditions can only be translated into sustainable long-term capital supply capacity if supported by systemic reforms.

Firstly, develop a medium- and long-term capital market development strategy aligned with the investment needs of the economy, clearly defining the role, function, and risk management requirements of each channel.

Secondly, develop a system of long-term institutional investors, especially pension funds, bond funds, insurance companies, and infrastructure investment funds.

Third, improve the quality of issuers by standardizing information disclosure, strengthening corporate governance, and encouraging independent credit ratings.

Fourth, develop the corporate bond market by diversifying products, maturities, and investors, while improving credit risk management.

Fifth, continue to improve market access for international investors, while strengthening resilience to capital flow volatility and exchange rate risks.

In particular, the focus of evaluating the success of capital market development policies needs to shift from indicators of market size to indicators reflecting market quality. Indicators to monitor include the proportion of capital raised directly for long-term investment, the ratio of equity to debt financing, the degree of investor diversification, the cost of capital, creditworthiness, and the ability to fulfill financial obligations.

1. Prioritize implementation following the July 2026 reform directives.

In the short term, priorities include resolving legal obstacles to projects, improving the speed of payment and settlement, and publicly disclosing the progress of financial market reforms. In the medium term, focus on forming a portfolio of investment projects eligible for capital mobilization, standardizing information disclosure documents, and developing long-term investment institutions and risk hedging products. In the long term, assess the effectiveness of capital mobilization through investment productivity, the proportion of capital flowing into high-value-generating sectors, and the ability of enterprises to maintain their debt obligations.

The proposed additional monitoring indicators include: the proportion of capital disbursed into high value-added sectors; the number of projects appraised and structured according to institutional investor standards; the proportion of appropriate risk hedging tools used; the actual value of international capital disbursed through new financing mechanisms; and the proportion of projects maintaining cash flow to meet debt obligations under the baseline scenario.

2. Policy Performance Evaluation Framework

This is a system of indicators for policy evaluation, not yet the official set of objectives for the management agency.

CONCLUDE

During the period 2026–2030, the ability to mobilize and allocate medium and long-term capital will directly impact Vietnam’s economic growth prospects, investment quality, and national competitiveness.

With projected investment capital needs of approximately 38.5 million billion VND, continued over-reliance on bank credit will struggle to fully meet the economy’s requirements in terms of scale, maturity, and risk diversification. Therefore, developing the capital market must become one of the strategic priorities in the restructuring of the national financial system.

The stock market needs to play a key role in providing long-term equity capital; the corporate bond market needs to become a transparent and professional channel for raising medium and long-term debt; and the banking system should continue to play a leading role in financing activities that are consistent with its risk management capabilities and capital characteristics.

In particular, the sustainable development of the capital market is inseparable from the creditworthiness of participating entities. Improving national creditworthiness, enhancing corporate creditworthiness, and strengthening investor confidence are three crucial foundations for unlocking long-term capital flows into the Vietnamese economy.

In the modern financial market, investment capital not only shifts to areas with high demand for funding, but also prioritizes entities capable of using capital efficiently, managing risks transparently, and fulfilling all financial commitments.

This is a core requirement of the transition from a growth model heavily reliant on credit expansion to one based on efficient capital allocation, quality financial governance, and creditworthiness.

Unlocking long-term capital flows is not only a solution to meet immediate investment needs, but also a strategic requirement to create a balanced, transparent, in-depth financial system capable of supporting Vietnam’s long-term economic growth.

Many economic experts believe that to unlock medium and long-term investment flows, Vietnam needs to link this with strong and comprehensive institutional and business environment reforms; coupled with the ability to form a portfolio of key investment projects with high ripple effects, instead of just expanding the money supply or increasing the number of financial products. An international financial center can only fulfill its role when it acts as a bridge to transform international capital into Vietnam’s production capacity, technology, and infrastructure.

Saigon Ratings. [02/11/2026]