Vietnam’s economy enters the fourth quarter of 2026 facing pressure to balance growth and macroeconomic stability.
After achieving a GDP growth rate of 9.01% in the first nine months of 2026, the Vietnamese economy enters the last three months of the year on a relatively positive foundation but also faces greater difficulties and challenges regarding macroeconomic stability, international trade, inflation control, credit quality, and the ability to maintain growth momentum.
Against the backdrop of a continuously diverging global economy, increasing strategic competition among major economies, and numerous risks to global trade, Vietnam’s task in the fourth quarter of 2026 is not only to maintain high growth rates but also to ensure the strong promotion of economic institutional innovation, reform, and the creation of a favorable business environment; coupled with ensuring stability in market prices, exchange rates, financial liquidity, credit quality, and unlocking economic resources and business confidence.
This is a period that demands more flexible and cautious economic policies, because the room for supporting growth could be significantly narrowed if inflationary pressures and macroeconomic imbalances increase in the short and medium term.
Risks from the international economic and trade environment
The first major challenge stems from the uncertain international economic, political, and trade environment. Geopolitical tensions, protectionist trends, tariff policy adjustments, and supply chain restructuring continue to directly impact highly open economies like Vietnam. Exports remain a crucial driver of growth, but the high level of dependence on major markets means Vietnam is vulnerable to fluctuations in global demand.
In the first nine months of 2026, total import and export turnover increased sharply, but imports grew faster than exports, leading to a trade deficit of approximately US$19.42 billion. This is a notable change compared to the trade surplus of the same period in 2025. Although the majority of imported goods are machinery, equipment, and raw materials for production, the prolonged trade deficit could put further pressure on the exchange rate, the balance of payments, and the demand for foreign currency in the banking system. Therefore, one of the biggest challenges in the fourth quarter of 2026 is maintaining trade growth without undermining the stability of macroeconomic balances.
Pressure to meet growth targets by 2026
GDP growth of 9.01% after the first nine months of 2026 provides a good foundation for the whole year, but also requires maintaining relatively high growth momentum in the fourth quarter. The challenge lies in the fact that many growth drivers may begin to face pressure after a period of rapid growth. Public investment must continue to be disbursed strongly but still needs to ensure efficiency; credit needs to meet year-end capital needs but must be accompanied by asset quality control; while the business sector still faces rising capital costs, raw material costs, and competitive pressure.
In particular, the number of businesses exiting the market in the first nine months of 2026 remains noteworthy. This shows that high GDP growth does not necessarily mean that all sectors of the economy are recovering uniformly. Therefore, the quality of growth in the fourth quarter of 2026 needs to be assessed not only through the GDP growth rate but also by considering the “financial health” of businesses, productivity, job creation capacity, and the efficiency of capital investment.
Inflation has become a major challenge for macroeconomic policy management.
Saigon Ratings predicts that one of the biggest risk factors for the Vietnamese economy in the last three months of 2026 is increasing inflationary pressure. The average CPI for the first nine months of 2026 is projected to increase by approximately 4.52%, while core inflation is expected to rise by 4.26%. In September 2026 alone, the CPI is projected to increase by approximately 5.08% compared to the same period in 2025. The commodity groups experiencing the highest CPI increases are housing, utilities, construction materials, transportation, and food.
Given the typical year-end consumer demand surge, volatile global commodity prices, and continued investment expansion, price pressures are likely to persist in the fourth quarter. This presents a difficult dilemma for monetary policy. Overly aggressive easing to support growth could increase inflation and exchange rate risks. Conversely, excessive caution could negatively impact businesses’ access to capital. Therefore, policy requires a balance between supporting reasonable credit growth and controlling inflation, exchange rate, and liquidity risks.
Credit growth quality and financial market risks
By the end of September 2026, credit growth is projected to reach approximately 10.89% compared to the end of 2025, exceeding the deposit growth of around 9.78%. The gap between credit growth and deposit growth is not yet a significant short-term risk, but if credit demand surges towards the end of the year, system liquidity could face pressure. A more significant challenge is credit quality. Under conditions of high economic growth, credit typically expands rapidly into real estate, manufacturing, consumption, and investment sectors. If capital flows are not allocated efficiently, the risk of bad debt may emerge with a time lag.
For the stock and corporate bond markets, the recovery process facilitates the mobilization of medium and long-term capital. However, for the capital market to truly become a sustainable channel for capital flow for the entire economy, we need to continue improving transparency, information quality, credit rating capacity, and investor protection. This is also a key factor in reducing the economy’s excessive dependence on bank credit.
Competition to attract the next generation of FDI is becoming increasingly fierce.
Foreign direct investment (FDI) continues to be a bright spot, but maintaining a competitive advantage in the medium and long term is no longer simple. Countries in the region are simultaneously striving to significantly improve their tax policies, infrastructure, energy, logistics, and human resources to attract large technology corporations. Therefore, Vietnam must compete directly in areas such as semiconductors, data centers, digital technology, green energy, and high-tech manufacturing.
The challenge is not just attracting more capital, but attracting a new generation of FDI with high added value, while simultaneously increasing the rate of linkages with domestic businesses. Without significant improvements in productivity, human resource quality, technological capabilities, and the supporting business ecosystem, Vietnam may continue to attract FDI, but domestic added value and spillover effects will remain limited.
Public investment and institutional reform remain two bottlenecks that need to be addressed.
Public investment continues to play a crucial role in supporting growth, particularly in transportation infrastructure, urban development, energy, and logistics. However, major challenges remain regarding disbursement progress, investment procedures, land clearance, and coordination among agencies. If key projects are delayed, their effectiveness in stimulating growth will be limited.
Furthermore, institutional reform and the business environment remain core requirements. Businesses need a stable legal environment, simplified administrative procedures, and greater policy predictability. Removing bottlenecks in land, investment, construction, energy, and capital markets will be crucial to the ability to mobilize social resources.
The biggest risk is maintaining high growth but with macroeconomic imbalances.
Overall, Vietnam’s economy in the last three months of 2026 does not lack growth drivers, but the biggest challenge lies in the quality and sustainability of growth. Rising inflation, a shift in the trade balance to a deficit, rapid credit expansion, and large investment demands create new pressures on economic management.
In this context, policy needs to avoid choosing between two extremes: either prioritizing growth at all costs, or tightening too drastically, which would stifle business activity. A more appropriate goal is to maintain growth on a foundation of macroeconomic stability, improve investment efficiency, develop the capital market, control financial risks, and continue institutional reforms. If these challenges are addressed effectively in the fourth quarter of 2026, Vietnam will not only have a basis to consolidate its economic growth results for the whole of 2026 but also create an important foundation for the economic outlook in 2027.
