Mr. Phung Xuan Minh, [Chairman of the Board of Directors of Phat Thinh Group & Saigon Ratings].
Based on developments in the first seven months of 2026, the Vietnamese real estate market is entering a new phase of development characterized by a gradual recovery in supply, more selective investment demand, and the increasing determination of property values based on substantive factors such as legal aspects, infrastructure, development potential, and the developer’s capabilities.
In the REAL ESTATE MARKETOUTLOOK FOR THE NEXT 7 MONTHS OF 2026 AND THE END OF 2027, the market outlook is generally more positive than the previous difficult period, but the recovery will continue to be highly differentiated among segments, regions, and businesses.
1. Trends in the real estate market
Supply continues to recover, but competition will increase.
The first noticeable trend is the gradual opening up of the real estate supply. In the first six months of 2026, approximately 98,000 housing units were offered for sale, an increase of about 50% compared to the same period last year. This increase in supply will provide buyers with more choices and simultaneously change the competitive landscape among developers.
When the market is no longer experiencing product shortages like in previous periods, businesses will have to compete more intensely based on project quality, implementation schedule, legal compliance, sales policies, and brand reputation. These could become some of the most important factors shaping the market from late 2026 into 2027.
The market is gradually shifting from speculative expectations to real demand and cash flow.
Another prominent trend is a shift in buyer and investor behavior. Money is becoming more cautious and tends to focus on properties with clear use value.
Projects with complete legal documentation, integrated infrastructure, the ability to be handed over on schedule, established residential communities, and the potential for rental income will have a greater advantage. Conversely, products that rely primarily on expectations of price increases due to planning information or short-term speculation will face greater liquidity risks.
This trend is also evident in resort real estate. Investors are increasingly interested in operational efficiency, occupancy rates, actual revenue, and legal aspects, rather than simply expecting future property value appreciation.
Real estate prices continue to diverge rather than increase uniformly.
Although supply is recovering, primary market prices in major cities remain high. However, the likelihood of the market entering a widespread price increase cycle like some previous periods is low as supply increases and buyers have more choices.
In the near future, real estate prices are likely to become more differentiated based on location, infrastructure, legal aspects, project quality, and actual usage demand.
Areas that directly benefit from major transportation projects such as ring roads, expressways, metros, airports, and logistics systems may continue to attract investment. However, sustainable price increases will depend on the actual progress of infrastructure development, population growth, and economic activity, rather than solely on anticipated information.
Infrastructure continues to reshape the landscape of real estate development.
The increased investment in transportation infrastructure is creating a significant shift in the market structure. In the first six months of 2026, the country completed and put into operation approximately 395 km of expressways, bringing the total length of expressways to about 3,345 km.
The expansion of ring roads, inter-regional expressways, metros, airports, and logistics centers will continue to expand the urban area, reduce pressure on the core area, and create conditions for the development of satellite markets.
Accordingly, real estate associated with strategic transportation corridors and the Transport-Oriented Development (TOD) model are likely to become one of the important trends in the medium term.
Industrial and logistics real estate maintains a positive outlook.
With industrial park occupancy rates in key areas of the North and South currently exceeding 80%, coupled with the growth of the processing and manufacturing industry and FDI inflows, industrial real estate continues to be considered one of the segments with a strong foundation of real demand.
The development trend in the coming period will not only focus on traditional industrial park land but will expand to include ready-built factories, warehouses, logistics centers, high-tech plants, and integrated industrial-urban-service ecosystems.
Green and high-quality real estate is receiving increasing attention.
In the office segment, the “flight to quality” trend is becoming increasingly evident as businesses prioritize buildings with high operational quality, energy efficiency, green standards, and a modern working environment.
This trend could extend to residential, commercial, and industrial real estate as ESG factors, energy efficiency, and sustainability increasingly become criteria for investors, tenants, and financial institutions.
2. Prospects for the development of the real estate market
Short-term outlook: continued but selective recovery.
From the final months of 2026, the real estate market has the basis to continue its recovery process thanks to several key drivers including economic growth, public investment, improved project supply, FDI activities, and the removal of legal obstacles.
However, the recovery will be uneven. Projects with high prices but lacking differentiation or failing to meet real needs may face liquidity difficulties. Conversely, projects with clear legal status, good progress, and located in areas with developing infrastructure are more likely to maintain positive absorption rates.
The housing segment continues to be the largest market, but affordability remains a key issue. The availability of over 757,000 social housing units in ongoing projects represents a significant medium-term supply. However, the actual impact on the market will depend on completion timelines and the ability to deliver these units to the right target group.
Medium-term outlook to the end of 2027
If the macroeconomic environment remains stable, infrastructure investment progress is maintained, and the legal procedures for projects proceed smoothly, the real estate market in 2027 has the potential to enter a more balanced development phase.
The supply of housing is likely to continue increasing in Hanoi, Ho Chi Minh City, and their satellite cities. This will help alleviate the shortage of housing but will also put developers under greater competitive pressure.
For industrial real estate, the medium-term outlook is relatively positive as Vietnam continues to integrate deeply into regional production chains and attract foreign investment. The development of transportation and logistics infrastructure will create more room for new industrial parks, ready-built factories, and logistics centers in localities with good connectivity to seaports, airports, and economic corridors.
The resort real estate market could see a more significant recovery if international tourist numbers continue to rise, but the recovery is likely to be concentrated on projects with practical operational potential and the ability to generate stable cash flow.
For office and commercial properties, high-quality properties in good locations with modern operating standards continue to benefit, while older properties or those that do not meet tenants’ new requirements may face pressure to upgrade or adjust prices.
Saigon Ratings. [August/09/2026]
