(*) Mr. Phung Xuan Minh, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Phat Thinh Group & Saigon Ratings.
In the first nine months of 2026, the Vietnamese financial market continued to undergo significant changes in its expansion, restructuring, and improved efficiency in mobilizing capital for the economy. Against the backdrop of positive growth in production, exports, investment, and consumption, the demand for capital from businesses continued to increase, boosting the role of capital conduit in the economy through the banking credit system, bond market, and securities market.
According to data from the General Statistics Office (Ministry of Finance), Vietnam’s GDP in the first nine months of 2026 increased by 9.01% compared to the same period in 2025. Total social investment is estimated at approximately VND 3,109.6 trillion, an increase of 15.1% compared to the same period in 2025; realized FDI reached USD 21.07 billion, an increase of 12.1% compared to the same period in 2025. Positive economic growth has contributed to creating a favorable foundation for the financial market to continue developing in the short and medium term.
However, the economic and financial environment remains affected by uncertainties from the international political and economic environment. The average CPI for the first nine months increased by 4.52%, while the trade balance showed a deficit of $19.42 billion. Pressure from prices, exchange rates, and capital costs could impact the ability to raise capital, credit quality, and business performance of enterprises.
Notably, the Vietnamese stock market was officially upgraded to a secondary emerging market by FTSE Russell. Meanwhile, bank credit growth, as of September 28, 2026, reached 10.89%, lower than the same period in 2025; the corporate bond market continues to face demands for improvement in issuer quality, debt repayment capacity, and investor confidence.
The aforementioned developments indicate that the financial market is facing new opportunities for growth; at the same time, it also highlights the urgent need to improve the quality of growth, control risks, and refine the capital mobilization structure towards greater safety, transparency, and sustainability.
PART ONE: FINANCIAL MARKET GROWTH IN THE FIRST 9 MONTHS OF 2026
A. BANK CREDIT MARKET
1. Outstanding Performance Results in the First Nine Months of 2026
In the first nine months of 2026, the banking system continued to play a leading role in supplying capital to the economy. According to the General Statistics Office, as of September 28, 2026, credit growth reached 10.89% compared to the beginning of 2025, but lower than the 13.37% recorded at the same time in 2025. Meanwhile, capital mobilization by credit institutions increased by 9.78%, compared to 9.99% in the same period of the previous year.
Market developments indicate that credit growth continues to be maintained, but at a slower pace than in 2025 and higher than the rate of deposit growth. This discrepancy between credit growth and deposit mobilization has created an urgent need for banks to continue to tightly manage their capital structure, liquidity, and lending efficiency.
2. Key features of the banking credit market
The need for increased equity capital continues to be a prominent trend as banks expand their asset base and meet capital adequacy requirements. According to Reuters on October 7, 2026, Vietnamese banks are planning to raise nearly $7 billion through share issuances by the end of 2027.
Saigon Ratings believes that increasing equity capital can help credit institutions improve their capital adequacy ratios, expand their credit supply capacity to the economy, and contribute to enhancing their ability to meet international risk management standards in their business operations.
3. Assessment of the quality of credit growth
Saigon Ratings believes that credit growth in the banking system needs to be considered in conjunction with asset quality, non-performing loan ratios, provisioning efficiency, and profitability. With production and business activities continuing to recover, the demand for loans may increase. However, credit expansion must be linked to the actual repayment capacity of customers, avoiding increased risk concentrated in sectors that heavily rely on financial leverage.
For banks, indicators such as CAR, NPL, NIM, ROA, ROE, and the loan loss coverage ratio continue to play a crucial role in assessing credit quality and financial capacity.
4. Prospects for attracting capital and enhancing competitiveness.
Saigon Ratings believes that the upgrade of the stock market could have a positive indirect impact on listed banks, through improved access to foreign investors and equity capital raising. In addition, the demand for digital banking development, increased capital adequacy, and improved risk management continue to attract strategic investors. However, the prospects for capital raising depend heavily on the asset quality, operational efficiency, and capital adequacy requirements of each bank.
B. STOCK MARKET
1. Outstanding results after 9 months of 2026
The Vietnamese stock market has recorded significant progress in terms of size and capital mobilization capacity. According to data from the General Statistics Office, as of September 30, 2026, the VN-Index reached 1,768.62 points, a decrease of 0.9% compared to the end of 2025; the market capitalization of stocks reached VND 10,306.94 trillion, an increase of 3.3%.
In particular, the total amount of capital raised on the stock market in the first nine months of 2026 is estimated to reach approximately VND 731.6 trillion, an increase of 85.6% compared to the same period in 2025. The number of investor accounts reached nearly 13.89 million by the end of August, an increase of 16.98% compared to the end of 2025. This reflects the continued expansion of market activity, although the stock index has shown divergence and adjustments during certain periods.
2. Key features of the stock market
The most significant milestone for the Vietnamese stock market is the official upgrade of Vietnam to a secondary emerging market by FTSE Russell, effective September 21, 2026. This upgrade reflects a significant improvement in market access, trading mechanisms, and infrastructure of the Vietnamese stock market.
However, the upgrade does not automatically mean an immediate increase in foreign capital inflows. The ability to attract capital also depends on international economic conditions, stock valuations, the quality of listed companies, and the portfolio allocation strategies of investment funds in the global market.
3. Assessing the developments in the stock market.
Market developments in late September and early October 2026 showed that investors remained cautious due to profit-taking pressure, liquidity fluctuations, and foreign capital inflows. From a financial analysis perspective, stock market growth should be assessed based on the quality of earnings, capital efficiency, information transparency, and the ability of listed companies to generate cash flow. Companies with strong management capabilities, sound financial situations, and stable operational performance can maintain their attractiveness in the long term, even during periods of market correction.
4. Prospects for attracting investment after the upgrade.
Saigon Ratings believes that joining the group of secondary emerging markets has created opportunities for Vietnam to participate more deeply in international indices, thereby expanding access to institutional investors. However, the actual effectiveness will depend significantly on the capital allocation process, foreign ownership ratios, trading capacity, and the quality of listed companies on the market.
At the same time, in the medium and long term, upgrading the stock market could positively promote the improvement of corporate governance quality of listed companies, expand the ability to raise equity capital, and gradually reduce dependence on bank loans.
