1. Growth Prospects for the Vietnamese Financial Market
Saigon Ratings predicts that, entering the fourth quarter of 2026, the outlook for Vietnam’s financial market will continue to be supported by a positive economic growth foundation, expanding investment demand, and progress in perfecting the capital market institutions; although risks from international trade fluctuations, energy costs, and global financial conditions remain.
Positive economic growth can support credit demand, improve corporate revenue and cash flow, thereby facilitating continued growth in the bond and securities markets. However, the ability to translate economic growth into financial market growth depends on the quality of business operations within the domestic enterprise system, the efficiency of capital allocation, and the system’s risk control capabilities.
For the corporate bond market, the recovery outlook in Q4 2026 and 2027 is expected to remain selective. Companies with sound financial foundations, strong cash flow capabilities, and high creditworthiness will be in a more favorable position to raise long-term capital.
For the stock market, upgrading to a secondary emerging market creates opportunities to attract international capital flows, expand the investor base, and enhance the status of Vietnam’s capital market. However, the growth prospects of the stock market will continue to depend on the business performance of listed companies, liquidity trends, valuations, and the conditions for allocating international capital.
For the banking system’s business operations, the demand for credit financing to support production, business, infrastructure investment, and enterprise development is likely to continue increasing in the short and medium term. Simultaneously, the need to increase equity capital and improve risk management quality will contribute to banks diversifying their funding sources. It is projected that by 2027, the banking system’s development prospects will heavily depend on its ability to maintain asset quality, improve business performance, enhance capital cost management, and improve its capacity to meet financial safety standards.
2. Growth Scenarios for the Vietnamese Financial Market in 2027
Based on the fundamental analysis and assessment above, Saigon Ratings presents the following forecast scenarios for the development of the national financial market:
Positive scenario : The economy continues to maintain high growth, inflation is under control, and international capital flows improve significantly. The bond market recovers more clearly, equity fundraising expands, and the banking system strengthens its financial capacity. The improvement in credit quality will be a key factor supporting more sustainable economic growth.
Base scenario: The economy continues to maintain a relatively positive growth rate but is affected by fluctuations in interest rates, exchange rates, and the international trade environment. The bond market develops selectively; the stock market is differentiated according to the quality of businesses; the banking system continues to expand credit based on risk control.
Conservative Scenario : Increased political, economic, and international trade uncertainties put pressure on inflation, exchange rates, and capital costs for the economy. Businesses’ ability to refinance is significantly reduced, leading to a potential increase in the risk of non-performing bank loans; the stock market is negatively impacted by liquidity fluctuations and foreign capital flows.
In the three hypothetical scenarios for the Vietnamese financial market presented above, Saigon Ratings suggests that the base scenario should be used as a reference for assessment. However, quantifying these scenarios requires a comprehensive forecasting model and data system, rather than relying solely on economic growth trends.
3. Propose key policy groups to create room for growth in the last three months of 2026 and in 2027.
Saigon Ratings believes that, in order to effectively capitalize on development opportunities while strengthening the resilience of the financial system, Vietnam needs to continue implementing a comprehensive set of solutions to stabilize the macroeconomy, improve the structure of the capital market, and enhance the quality of risk management.
Firstly, maintaining macroeconomic stability and implementing a flexible monetary policy are crucial. Controlling inflation, stabilizing exchange rates, and ensuring liquidity in the banking system should continue to be prioritized to strengthen business and investor confidence. Monetary policy needs to be closely coordinated with fiscal policy to support sustained high economic growth over the long term without creating significant imbalances in credit, asset prices, or debt obligations.
Secondly, the corporate bond market should be developed in a transparent, professional, and sustainable manner. This requires improving the quality of information disclosure, monitoring the use of capital, and ensuring the fulfillment of payment obligations by issuers. Simultaneously, independent credit rating activities should be promoted, a professional investor base developed, and the efficiency of transactions in the secondary market improved. Establishing a bond pricing mechanism based on credit risk levels will contribute to improving the efficiency of capital allocation in the economy and limit the phenomenon of inappropriate pricing that does not reflect the financial quality of businesses.
Third, continue to improve the stock market after its upgrade. The focus should be on upgrading trading infrastructure, improving accessibility for international investors, refining information disclosure standards, and enhancing market supervision. In addition, it is necessary to promote the quality of corporate governance of listed companies and expand the supply of shares with sound financial foundations, thereby improving the ability to attract long-term investment capital.
Fourth, strengthen the safety and financial capacity of the entire banking system. Banks need to continue to improve their own capital, enhance asset quality, strengthen risk provisions, and control credit concentration levels. At the same time, they need to improve liquidity management mechanisms, balance the maturities of capital sources and uses, and control risks arising from real estate financing and other highly volatile and high-risk sectors.
Fifth, develop a more balanced financial market structure between bank credit, bonds, and stocks. Vietnam needs to continue expanding medium- and long-term capital mobilization channels, reducing businesses’ excessive dependence on bank credit. The synchronized development of the capital market will help businesses diversify their financing sources, improve their debt and equity structures, and alleviate the pressure on commercial banks to supply long-term capital.
Sixth, improve the quality of financial governance of issuers and strengthen the role of independent credit ratings. Businesses need to focus on cash flow management, controlling financial leverage, restructuring debt maturities, and developing capital raising plans that match their debt repayment capacity. Expanding the use of independent credit rating results will help investors identify and differentiate risks among issuers, creating an incentive to enhance transparency and financial accountability of issuers in the market.
For the entire financial system, developing a unified database and enhancing information sharing among regulatory agencies, credit institutions, and financial service providers will contribute to improving supervisory capacity and preventing systemic risks. In the short and medium term, the central requirement for the Vietnamese financial market is not only to expand the scale of capital mobilization, but also to build a balanced, transparent, professional market structure that is highly resilient to fluctuations in the business environment.
The synchronized development of the bond market, stock market, and banking credit system, along with increased application of independent credit ratings, will be crucial foundations for strengthening investor confidence, improving the efficiency of financial resource allocation, and creating momentum for Vietnam’s economic growth in 2027 and the 2028-2030 period.
Saigon Ratings . [09/Oct/2026]
