1. Difficulties, Challenges, and Risks of the Vietnamese Bond Market
Saigon Ratings notes that, although fundraising through the corporate bond market is gradually recovering, difficulties related to debt repayment capacity, capital structure, and issuer quality remain significant risk factors.
Firstly, the pressure of maturity and refinancing risks continue to be a major challenge for businesses with high debt ratios, especially in the real estate sector and industries with long investment cycles. If cash flow from business operations fails to meet debt obligations, businesses may have to extend bonds, raise new capital, or transfer assets to generate funds for repayment. While these solutions may support short-term liquidity, they may not necessarily resolve the underlying structural financial imbalances.
Secondly, the risks associated with the issuer’s collateral assets continue to be a concern. The value and liquidation of collateral assets depend on market conditions, legal status, and the payment priority of the parties involved. Therefore, the value of collateral assets cannot be considered a complete substitute for the ability to repay debt from operating cash flow.
Thirdly, the investor structure and liquidity of the secondary market still need further improvement. The fact that the corporate bond market is heavily reliant on a few investor groups can make issuance activities highly susceptible to changes in liquidity conditions.
Fourth, the quality of information disclosure and differences in financial management capabilities among issuers exacerbate the difficulty in assessing credit risk. Developing independent credit rating services can effectively assist investors in differentiating risk levels, but it does not replace the responsibility of appraisal and portfolio management.
In the fourth quarter of 2026 and throughout 2027, the fundamental challenge for the corporate bond market will not only be the recovery of issuance volume, but also improving debt fulfillment capacity, enhancing credit quality, and establishing a transparent bond risk pricing mechanism.
2. Difficulties, Challenges, and Risks of the Stock Market
The stock market enters the fourth quarter of 2026 with increased long-term growth opportunities following the upgrade, but also faces many uncertainties from the international financial environment and investor sentiment.
Firstly, fluctuations in foreign capital flows continue to impact market liquidity and valuation. While market upgrades facilitate an expansion of the international investor base, the actual ability to attract capital still depends on the monetary policies of major economies, exchange rate movements, and the relative attractiveness of assets in the Vietnamese stock market.
Secondly, the stock market may face correction pressure when earnings growth expectations fail to keep pace with stock price increases. Differentiation between sectors will become increasingly pronounced, especially for companies with varying levels of financial leverage.
Thirdly, the risks from margin lending activities of securities companies need to be carefully monitored. When the market is highly volatile, pressure to reduce margin ratios can lead to increased stock selling activity, amplifying short-term price fluctuations.
Fourth, the need to improve the quality of corporate governance, information disclosure, and investor protection for listed companies continues to be a challenge for the Vietnamese stock market. An international upgrade requires substantial improvements in access to information, effective transaction monitoring, and the financial quality of listed companies.
Saigon Ratings believes that the central issue for the stock market in the remaining months of 2026 and 2027 will not only be maintaining the positive performance of stock market indices, but also consolidating the foundation for sustainable development and enhancing the ability to absorb domestic and international investment capital in the medium and long term.
3. Difficulties, Challenges, and Risks of the Banking Credit Market
Saigon Ratings believes that, for the banking system’s business operations, the requirement to balance credit growth and ensure operational safety will continue to be a significant challenge in Q4 2026 and 2027.
Firstly, the fact that credit growth is higher than deposit growth in the first nine months of 2026 necessitates careful management of liquidity, maturity structure, and capital costs. If competition for deposits intensifies, interest expenses on deposits could put pressure on banks’ net interest margins, especially given the difficulty in adjusting lending rates accordingly.
Secondly, asset quality risk continues to require close monitoring, especially for loans related to high-risk business sectors, highly leveraged businesses, and economic sectors with limited resilience to negative impacts from international trade fluctuations.
Thirdly, there is a growing need for increased equity capital as banks pursue strategies to expand their asset size and meet international capital management standards. However, increasing capital without improving credit quality and asset management efficiency may not lead to a corresponding improvement in financial capacity.
Fourth, the digital transformation process and the enhancement of competitive resources in banking operations continue to require significant investment; at the same time, it also increases the demands for data security, technological security, and operational risk management.
4. The process of institutional reform and addressing bottlenecks in the national financial market.
One of the structural problems of Vietnam’s financial system is its heavy reliance on bank credit to meet the economy’s capital needs. Meanwhile, the corporate bond market and the stock market, although developed, have not yet fully fulfilled their role in providing medium and long-term capital for the economy and the business system.
This imbalance could increase pressure on the commercial banking system, especially given the projected large demand for medium and long-term investment capital for the entire economy during the 2027-2030 period. Therefore, the development orientation of the financial market needs to aim for a more balanced model between bank credit, bonds, and stocks.
For the bond market, it is necessary to improve the mechanisms for issuance, trading, information disclosure, and monitoring of debt obligations by issuers. For the stock market, the focus should be on continuing to upgrade trading infrastructure, improving access for foreign investors, and promoting corporate governance of listed companies according to international standards. For the banking system, continued emphasis should be placed on enhancing operating capital capacity, strengthening liquidity management, and controlling credit risk.
5. Assessments by international organizations on financial risks at the end of 2026 and in 2027.
According to the ADB, the growth outlook for the Asia-Pacific region continues to be affected by geopolitical instability, energy costs, global financial conditions, and changes in trade policy. At the same time, the ADB also warned that high levels of public and private debt could undermine the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission, making it more difficult to control inflation and sustain economic growth.
For the Vietnamese financial market, these factors could put pressure on exchange rates, interest rates, the ability to raise international capital, and corporate cash flow. In the event of increased capital costs, bond-issuing companies may face difficulties in refinancing; banks will face pressure on funding costs and asset quality; while the stock market may be affected by changes in valuations and domestic and international investment flows.
In particular, the interconnectedness of the real estate market, the banking credit system, and the corporate bond market increases the need for risk monitoring at the system-wide level. Therefore, a crucial requirement in the coming period is to maintain macroeconomic stability, strengthen financial safety buffers, and enhance resilience to external fluctuations. The Vietnamese financial market needs to shift strongly from the goal of expanding scale to improving the quality of growth, the efficiency of capital allocation, and the capacity for systemic risk management.
