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3. Capital channeling through the corporate bond market: Great potential but requires rebuilding the foundation of trust.
The corporate bond market plays a particularly important role in the development of the long-term capital market. Unlike equity capital, issuing bonds allows businesses to raise debt capital from investors without directly changing the ownership structure.
For businesses with relatively stable cash flow, clear investment plans, and adequate debt repayment capacity, corporate bonds can be an effective medium- and long-term financing tool.
According to data compiled by VBMA from HNX and the State Securities Commission, the total value of corporate bond issuances in the first nine months of 2026 reached VND 428,527 billion. Of this, private placements accounted for VND 370,572 billion (approximately 86.5%), while public offerings accounted for VND 57,955 billion (approximately 13.5%).
The banking sector accounted for approximately 53% of the issuance value and the real estate sector accounted for approximately 40% in the first nine months of 2026. This structure indicates a significant concentration of issuance activity in these two sectors.
Despite improved issuance volume, the corporate bond market still faces issues related to issuer structure, quality of information disclosure, debt repayment capacity, and liquidity in the secondary market.
According to data compiled by VBMA, the value of bonds expected to mature in Q4/2026 is over VND 70,000 billion. This is a pressure that needs to be continuously monitored, especially for businesses with weak operating cash flow or those heavily dependent on refinancing.
From a credit risk analysis perspective, Saigon Ratings believes that the corporate bond market needs to shift from a fundraising model primarily based on collateral and expected yields to a pricing model based on genuine creditworthiness.
Investors need to be provided with complete information about the financial capacity, asset quality, debt structure, debt repayment cash flow, and risk level of the issuing company. Bond products with maturities and repayment methods that align with cash flow cycles should be developed, rather than focusing too heavily on issuances with principal repayment obligations at the end of the term.
A sustainable bond market requires a clear risk differentiation mechanism. Businesses with good creditworthiness, stable operations, and transparent financial management should have access to capital at a more affordable cost compared to businesses with high credit risk.
This requires independent credit rating activities to be developed in a professional manner, with a clear methodology, and to be genuinely used in the investment decision-making process.
II. MEDIUM AND LONG-TERM CAPITAL REQUIREMENTS FOR THE ECONOMY IN THE PERIOD 2026–2030
1. The need for long-term investment capital to support economic growth objectives.
The period 2026–2030 is identified as a strategically significant phase for achieving the goals of accelerating growth, transforming the development model, and laying the foundation for Vietnam to move closer to becoming a high-income country.
The demand for high economic growth places a huge need for development investment capital, especially in the fields of infrastructure, manufacturing, high technology, energy, logistics, and digital transformation.
According to calculations published at the policy workshop on October 22, 2026, the total investment capital needs of the economy in the period 2026–2030 are estimated at approximately VND 38.5 million billion, compared to about VND 17.4 million billion in the period 2021–2025.
According to the same research source, to achieve a GDP growth target of approximately 9–10% per year, the ratio of total social investment capital needs to reach about 36–39% of GDP.
Therefore, the requirement is not only to mobilize more capital but also to improve the efficiency of investment capital utilization throughout the entire economy.
Theoretically, the relationship between economic growth rate, investment rate, and capital efficiency can be considered through the ICOR coefficient: ICOR ≈ (I/GDP) / g. Where I/GDP is the ratio of investment to GDP and g is the GDP growth rate, expressed as a decimal number.
Assuming an investment rate of 36–39% of GDP and growth of 9–10%, the implied ICOR coefficient ranges from approximately 3.6–4.3. This is an illustrative calculation based on assumptions, not the actual statistically recorded ICOR result.
If capital efficiency does not improve, investment capital demand may continue to increase faster than the economy’s accumulation capacity, leading to pressure on interest rates, capital balances, and debt. Conversely, when labor productivity, technological efficiency, and the quality of capital allocation are improved, the economy can achieve greater growth per unit of investment.
From Saigon Ratings’ perspective, the quality of growth must be placed on par with the scale of growth , with the efficiency of investment capital utilization and the ability to generate sustainable cash flow being priority indicators.
2. Capital investment needs for key national projects and works.
One of the key drivers of economic growth in the 2026–2030 period is the acceleration of investment in strategic infrastructure systems. Areas with high capital demand include highways, railways, seaports, airports, urban infrastructure, energy, logistics, information technology, and infrastructure supporting green transformation.
According to the National Assembly’s Resolution on the medium-term public investment plan for the period 2026–2030, the total public investment capital is determined to be 8.22 million billion VND, of which central government budget capital is approximately 3.8 million billion VND and local government budget capital is approximately 4.42 million billion VND.
Public investment plays a leading role, but it is difficult to meet all the infrastructure investment needs of the economy. It is necessary to further develop public-private partnership (PPP) models, mobilizing capital from infrastructure investment funds, development finance institutions, and long-term institutional investors.
For projects with the potential to generate commercial cash flow, project financing structures such as issuing corporate bonds or project bonds as required by law, combining equity and long-term debt, may be considered.
However, the ability to raise capital needs to be determined based on the financial feasibility of each project. Projects with long payback periods, revenue dependent on pricing mechanisms, production output, or government commitments often require a clear risk allocation mechanism between the government, investors, and lenders.
According to Saigon Ratings’ assessment, key risks to consider include construction progress, total investment, land acquisition, commercial viability, interest rate fluctuations, exchange rate fluctuations, and the certainty of the project’s cash flow.
For large-scale infrastructure projects, the quality of financial appraisal and project creditworthiness assessment should become a crucial basis for funding decisions.
3. Prioritize capital allocation to industries that generate high productivity and added value.
Investment capital needs for the period 2026–2030 should be screened based on economic value creation capacity rather than primarily on project scale. According to Associate Professor Dr. Nguyen Huu Huan, as quoted in Investor Magazine on July 29, 2026, priority areas could include infrastructure, logistics, energy, technology, data, urban development, and green transformation.
From Saigon Ratings’ perspective, evaluating the efficiency of capital allocation requires considering factors such as capital productivity, domestic added value, supply chain spillover effects, risk-adjusted return on investment, and the ability to generate cash flow for debt repayment. Projects with high social impact but insufficient commercial cash flow require appropriate budgetary mechanisms, guarantees, or risk-sharing; the entire risk should not be automatically transferred to bondholders.
In the field of green finance and infrastructure transformation, the issuance of green bonds or project financing is only truly sustainable when there is a portfolio of eligible projects, clear standards for capital utilization, verifiable impacts, and the ability to monitor the fulfillment of commitments.
4. Long-term capital needs to support the development of production and business activities of enterprises.
Besides the public investment sector, the business sector is expected to continue playing a leading role in mobilizing and utilizing investment capital for development.
According to the General Statistics Office, in the first nine months of 2026, Vietnam saw nearly 149,700 newly registered businesses with a total registered capital of approximately VND 1,884 trillion, a 32.7% increase compared to the same period last year. This increase in registered capital reflects the trend of expanding business operations and investment expectations, although it cannot be equated with the amount of actual investment made.
In this new phase of development, businesses’ long-term capital needs are focused on expanding capacity, modernizing machinery and equipment, transforming technology, developing supply chains, enhancing export capabilities, and meeting environmental, social, and governance standards.
Businesses operating in the industrial, energy, industrial real estate, infrastructure, and logistics sectors typically have long investment periods and require capital with maturities that match the asset exploitation cycle.
However, access to capital still varies significantly among different business groups. Larger businesses with strong brands, fully audited financial statements, and good governance capabilities generally have easier access to banks, investment funds, and capital markets.
Conversely, many small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are limited in terms of equity capital, ability to generate stable cash flow, financial management capacity, and the quality of information disclosure.
According to Saigon Ratings, the gap in fundraising ability reflects not only differences in enterprise size but also differences in creditworthiness and the ability to demonstrate the capacity to fulfill financial obligations . Improving long-term fundraising capacity must begin with improving financial management, before expanding to credit management and access to professional capital markets.
