(Mr.): Phung Xuan Minh, Chairman of the Board of Directors of Phat Thinh Group & Saigon Ratings.
Vietnam is entering a new phase of economic development requiring high growth, expanded investment in strategic infrastructure, a transformation of its growth model, and enhanced national competitiveness. In this context, the ability to effectively mobilize and allocate medium and long-term capital will become one of the decisive factors for economic growth prospects in the period 2026–2030 and beyond.
According to the General Statistics Office, Vietnam’s GDP in the first nine months of 2026 increased by 9.01% compared to the same period last year; total social investment reached VND 3,109.6 trillion, an increase of 15.1%. Experts estimate the investment capital needs of the economy for the entire period 2026–2030 to be approximately VND 38.5 million trillion, significantly higher than the period 2021–2025.
However, the large scale of capital demand poses a structural challenge to Vietnam’s financial system. Bank credit remains dominant in supplying capital to the economy, including financing with long repayment periods. Conversely, the stock market and corporate bond market have not yet fully played their role as stable, efficient, and sustainable medium- and long-term capital channels.
At the Vietnam Capital Market Forum on October 30, 2026, information revealed that bank credit contributed approximately 51% of the total capital in the economy, while the stock and corporate bond markets contributed only about 13-14%. It should be noted that statistical methods may differ between different capital channels.
According to Saigon Ratings’ assessment within the scope of this report, the biggest challenge lies not only in mobilizing sufficient financial resources, but also in the ability to build a capital market structure capable of allocating capital to the right recipients, with appropriate maturities, accurately pricing risks, and protecting the legitimate interests of investors.
Unlocking long-term capital flows should be approached as a process of restructuring the national financial system , with coordination between bank credit, the stock market, the bond market, and long-term investment institutions. Improving national creditworthiness, corporate creditworthiness, and investor confidence must become pillars in Vietnam’s capital market development strategy.
| Key targets | Value |
| GDP growth for the first nine months of 2026 | 9.01% |
| Total social investment in the first 9 months of 2026 | 3.11 million billion VND |
| Estimated investment capital requirements for 2026–2030 | 38.5 million billion VND |
| Issuance of corporate bonds in September 2026 | 428.527 billion VND |
Source: General Statistics Office; policy workshop October 2026; VBMA. Currency is Vietnamese Dong unless otherwise noted.
POLICY UPDATE AND CAPITAL ALLOCATION GUIDELINES: According to an article in Investor Magazine on July 19, 2026, at the conference on July 18, the Prime Minister requested the completion and submission of the overall financial market reform plan in July 2026; while prioritizing the domestic capital market as a channel for long-term capital mobilization and promoting the establishment of international financial centers in Ho Chi Minh City and Da Nang. This directive was reported in the press in July and does not mean the plan has been approved.
An additional perspective from Associate Professor Dr. Nguyen Huu Huan at the workshop “Solutions for the Synchronized Development of the Capital Market” is that the bottleneck lies not only in the ability to mobilize capital, but also in the ability to channel capital into industries that create high added value and high marginal productivity. Therefore, this report adds the criterion of “quality of capital allocation” alongside the scale, cost, and maturity of capital.
I. CURRENT SITUATION OF LONG-TERM CAPITAL SUPPLY FOR THE ECONOMY
1. Bank credit channels: The leading role and pressure from maturity mismatches.
In the structure of Vietnam’s financial system, bank credit is a crucial channel for supplying capital, directly supporting the production, business, consumption, and investment activities of enterprises and households. Thanks to its ability to mobilize deposits widely, its large distribution network, and its relatively complete credit appraisal mechanism, the commercial banking system has made a significant contribution to Vietnam’s economic development.
However, this heavy reliance on bank credit also creates some drawbacks. First, there is a mismatch between the maturity of deposits and the maturity of loans. At the policy workshop on October 22, 2026, data presented showed that approximately 80% of bank deposits have maturities of less than 12 months, while about 50% of outstanding loans are in the medium and long-term categories.
This places the banking system under pressure to manage liquidity risk and refinancing risk. Banks must maintain the ability to meet short-term payment obligations, while a portion of their income-generating assets can only be recovered over several years.
Essentially, maturity conversion is a normal function of the commercial banking system. However, when the proportion of medium and long-term credit increases rapidly, especially in volatile financial markets, large maturity spreads can increase the cost of capital mobilization and put pressure on liquidity.
In addition, the ability to expand credit is also influenced by capital adequacy ratio requirements, credit limits, risk provisioning, asset quality, and the capacity to control bad debts.
One issue that requires particular attention is that the capital needs of infrastructure, industrial real estate, energy, and transportation projects often have investment terms of 10–20 years, or even longer. These are sectors that are not always suitable for financing primarily through short-term bank deposits.
According to Saigon Ratings’ analysis, continuing to rely on the banking system as the primary source of financing for long-term investment projects will increase pressure on the liquidity structure of the financial system , while limiting the ability to expand capital access for small and medium-sized enterprises, manufacturing businesses, and trading activities.
Therefore, the requirement is not to narrow the role of bank credit, but to re-establish the function of each capital financing channel. In that structure, the banking system continues to play a crucial role in short-term credit, trade finance, working capital, and long-term loans in line with risk management capabilities; the stock and bond markets need to assume a larger share in providing medium and long-term investment capital.
2. Capital channeling through the stock market: While its scale is increasing, its capital mobilization function needs to be improved.
The Vietnamese stock market has undergone three decades of formation and development, gradually becoming an important component of the national financial system.
According to the General Statistics Office, the total amount of capital raised through the stock market in the first nine months of 2026 reached VND 731.6 trillion, an increase of 85.6% compared to the same period in 2025. The number of investor accounts reached nearly 13.89 million by the end of August 2026.
A significant step forward is FTSE Russell’s confirmation of upgrading the Vietnamese stock market from a frontier market to a secondary emerging market, effective September 21, 2026. The inclusion of Vietnamese stocks in international indices is being implemented in stages.
This event creates opportunities to improve access to global investment funds, expand the investor base, and enhance the integration of the Vietnamese stock market.
However, it is necessary to clearly distinguish between stock market growth and the effectiveness of capital mobilization for the real economy. Increases in stock indices, market capitalization, or trading liquidity primarily reflect price movements and trading activity in the market. The ability to provide new capital to businesses depends directly on IPOs, additional share issuances, public offerings, and other legitimate forms of equity capital raising.
Therefore, a sustainably developed stock market is not only judged by the volume of transactions, but also by its ability to transform society’s savings into investment capital for production and business.
According to Saigon Ratings, it is necessary to improve the efficiency of three core functions: (i) Developing the market into a channel for mobilizing long-term equity capital, contributing to reducing financial leverage; (ii) Improving the quality of governance, transparency, and efficiency of capital utilization of listed companies; (iii) Developing a professional institutional investor force with long-term investment strategies.
An upgraded market status does not automatically mean that international capital flows will increase or remain stable. International investors still assess markets based on the quality of businesses, transparency, capital mobility, governance efficiency, exchange rate risks, and mechanisms for protecting shareholder rights.
Therefore, upgrading the market status only truly yields economic benefits when it translates into the ability to raise long-term capital at a reasonable cost and with higher capital utilization efficiency.
