C. BOND MARKET
1. Outstanding results of the bond market
The bond market continues to play a crucial role in mobilizing medium and long-term capital, contributing to meeting the investment and development needs of the Government and the business sector. Specifically, the government bond market continues to fulfill its function of mobilizing capital for the budget, public investment, and forming a benchmark yield curve; the corporate bond market is gradually recovering its issuance activities amidst increasing demand for production and business capital.
For corporate bonds, the recovery has been differentiated among issuers. Companies with sound financial foundations, stable cash flow, a good payment history, and high levels of information transparency generally have more favorable conditions for accessing capital markets. Conversely, companies with high financial leverage, reliance on borrowed capital, or limited cash flow continue to face difficulties in raising capital and fulfilling debt obligations. This differentiation reflects a market trend that is gradually shifting from increasing the scale of issuance to a greater focus on credit quality and the ability of issuers to meet their financial obligations.
2. Scale of issuance and structure of corporate bonds
According to VBMA statistics, corporate bond issuance activity increased significantly from March to June 2026, decreased in July, and showed signs of recovery in August.
However, the total issuance value for the first nine months of 2026, within the same statistical scope, has not been fully reconciled between VBMA, HNX, and other market management sources. Therefore, accurately determining the issuance proportion by sector, maturity, and issuance method requires a unified data set.
Structurally, the corporate bond market needs to continue developing public offerings, expanding the investor base, and reducing dependence on a few groups of issuers or large investors. Regarding credit rating requirements, the scale of issuance in the market should be assessed simultaneously with interest rates, maturities, the purpose of capital utilization, the degree of assurance of fulfilling debt obligations fully and on time, and the cash flow of the issuers.
3. Pressure from maturities at the end of 2026 and 2027.
Bond maturity pressure continues to be a key issue for the bond market in Q4 2026 and 2027. For businesses with high debt ratios, especially in the real estate sector, bond repayment obligations can put significant pressure on their cash flow.
Risk increases when revenue from business operations fails to meet payment deadlines or when the business becomes dependent on issuing new debt for refinancing. The ability to meet debt obligations should therefore be assessed through cash flow from business operations, liquid assets, maturing debt obligations, and access to alternative sources of funding.
Saigon Ratings predicts that in 2027, maturity risks may continue to be strongly differentiated among issuers. Companies with strong financial capabilities will be able to proactively restructure their capital; conversely, companies with cash flow imbalances may face pressure to extend financial obligations or may need to proactively restructure their debt obligations.
4. The ability to distribute and trade bonds in the market.
Saigon Ratings believes that the sustainable development of the corporate bond market is not only reflected in the scale of primary issuance but also depends on the trading capacity in the secondary market. It is necessary to clearly distinguish between the value of successfully issued bonds, outstanding debt, registered trading value, and the actual trading value of bonds in the market.
A corporate bond market with a large issuance volume but limited secondary liquidity can still pose significant liquidity risks to investors. Therefore, standardizing the disclosure of information by issuers, expanding the centralized trading system, and improving the efficiency of bond pricing are crucial in creating depth for the market.
5. Investor confidence and interest rate developments
Investor confidence continues to be a decisive factor in the prospects for the recovery of the corporate bond market in the medium and long term. With investors increasingly focusing on credit quality, repayment capacity, and financial transparency, issuers with good credit ratings will have an advantage in accessing long-term capital at more reasonable and competitive costs compared to other businesses.
Bond interest rates in the market need to reflect the actual risk level of the issuer. Maintaining high interest rates to attract investors cannot replace the ability to generate cash flow and fulfill payment obligations. Therefore, developing independent credit rating activities, standardizing information disclosure, and enhancing the accountability of issuers will contribute to strengthening confidence, improving the efficiency of capital allocation, and minimizing market risk.
